What do Democrats have to gain, politically, by preventing Brett Kavanaugh's appointment to the Supreme Court?
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From a purely political perspective: If his nomination is withdrawn, won't Trump just nominate another conservative judge (who would presumably be confirmed by the republican-controlled senate)?
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From a purely political perspective: If his nomination is withdrawn, won't Trump just nominate another conservative judge (who would presumably be confirmed by the republican-controlled senate)?
united-states supreme-court
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â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 28 at 5:34
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Consider the converse: What do Republicans have to gain by continuing to argue for Kavanaugh instead of rejecting him and moving to the next option on the list?
â Walt
Sep 28 at 17:47
Two questions asked, which question is the focus? Please clarify.
â BobE
Sep 28 at 20:10
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@Walt If Republicans backed down immediately to accusations like this, that tendency to back down could theoretically be gamed by the Democrats.
â Sam I amâ¦
2 days ago
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up vote
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From a purely political perspective: If his nomination is withdrawn, won't Trump just nominate another conservative judge (who would presumably be confirmed by the republican-controlled senate)?
united-states supreme-court
From a purely political perspective: If his nomination is withdrawn, won't Trump just nominate another conservative judge (who would presumably be confirmed by the republican-controlled senate)?
united-states supreme-court
united-states supreme-court
edited Sep 28 at 14:43
Physics-Compute
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â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 28 at 5:34
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Consider the converse: What do Republicans have to gain by continuing to argue for Kavanaugh instead of rejecting him and moving to the next option on the list?
â Walt
Sep 28 at 17:47
Two questions asked, which question is the focus? Please clarify.
â BobE
Sep 28 at 20:10
2
@Walt If Republicans backed down immediately to accusations like this, that tendency to back down could theoretically be gamed by the Democrats.
â Sam I amâ¦
2 days ago
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â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 28 at 5:34
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Consider the converse: What do Republicans have to gain by continuing to argue for Kavanaugh instead of rejecting him and moving to the next option on the list?
â Walt
Sep 28 at 17:47
Two questions asked, which question is the focus? Please clarify.
â BobE
Sep 28 at 20:10
2
@Walt If Republicans backed down immediately to accusations like this, that tendency to back down could theoretically be gamed by the Democrats.
â Sam I amâ¦
2 days ago
1
1
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â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 28 at 5:34
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 28 at 5:34
32
32
Consider the converse: What do Republicans have to gain by continuing to argue for Kavanaugh instead of rejecting him and moving to the next option on the list?
â Walt
Sep 28 at 17:47
Consider the converse: What do Republicans have to gain by continuing to argue for Kavanaugh instead of rejecting him and moving to the next option on the list?
â Walt
Sep 28 at 17:47
Two questions asked, which question is the focus? Please clarify.
â BobE
Sep 28 at 20:10
Two questions asked, which question is the focus? Please clarify.
â BobE
Sep 28 at 20:10
2
2
@Walt If Republicans backed down immediately to accusations like this, that tendency to back down could theoretically be gamed by the Democrats.
â Sam I amâ¦
2 days ago
@Walt If Republicans backed down immediately to accusations like this, that tendency to back down could theoretically be gamed by the Democrats.
â Sam I amâ¦
2 days ago
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11 Answers
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If senators can draw out the nomination process long enough, they have a chance of having a Democratic majority in the Senate during the next confirmation. Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with.
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That's if they allow one at all. Some Democrats have suggested no Trump nominees would be acceptible
â Machavity
Sep 28 at 14:47
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"Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with." - That's not entirely true. Just as we saw with Garland, the President can nominate the person they want, and Senate can just flounder on it. Then political games ensue, with everyone saying the other party isn't doing their job.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:36
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@elliotsvensson It would be interesting to see Democrats attempt to stall a confirmation for over a 1+ years... the political flak to just confirm and move on with life would surely add up. It's entirely possible Republicans could ram through a conservative nominee this way.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:45
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@BobE, "have a chance" implies speculation, too, I guess.
â elliot svensson
Sep 28 at 20:16
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@SnakeDoc: But with a Senate majority (or even with a few sensible Republicans from "purple states"), stalling a confirmation isn't the Democrats' only option, They can simply vote to reject an unsatisfactory nominee.
â jamesqf
Sep 29 at 17:03
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Expanding on Elliot's answer.
Even if rushed, there is a process to approving a President's nomination. Nominating and approving another person before the November election would be possible, but it would be tricky to do it that quickly.
Could Republicans really get Barrett or another nominee confirmed
before then? And if not, could they confirm her in the so-called
lame-duck session after the midterms but before the new Congress meets
on Jan. 3.
The answers are âÂÂpossiblyâ and âÂÂprobablyâ â but the timing is getting
dicier by the day.
(written on 9/25)
The Republicans right now just barely have a majority of the Senate. There's a Senate election in just 40 days. So there's a chance they could lose control of the Senate before anyone else could be nominated and voted on. If that were to happen, then the President would be forced to nominate someone who could get at least some Democratic support.
That being said, its not a great chance. Only about a third of Senate seats are up, and only about a third of those are held by Republicans. 538 currently gives the Democrats about 31.5% of taking control.
However, that's not too much longer odds than the Republicans faced in their gambit of refusing hearings for Merrick Garland, and they were lucky. Sometimes you beat the odds when you take these gambles, and if goodwill from the other side isn't a consideration (which its fair to say hasn't been a possibility during Mitch McConnell's entire chairmanship), there isn't much downside to not trying.
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â Philippâ¦
Sep 28 at 8:23
15
Also, don't underestimate the importance of following through on a tit-for-tat strategy. The GOP will see perverse incentives to keep obstructing judicial nominations if it doesn't come back to bite them (or at least threaten to).
â nomen
Sep 28 at 20:54
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Even IF the Democrats take the Senate these coming midterms, they wonâÂÂt actually be seated until January. Republicans could vote on and confirm a nominee in the interim, albeit not without some political blowback.
â eggyal
Sep 30 at 7:03
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I asked a question about this before and the only answer was that a lame duck Senate session can confirm just as well. So there is no November deadline. Even if Republicans do lose, they can confirm someone after the election (with no political price to pay at that point).
â grovkin
Sep 30 at 9:27
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Senators doing their job
the moral benefits of not having an accused sex offender on the Supreme Court.
That's not just a moral benefit, that's the senate's job. From senate.gov (emphasis is mine):
The Constitution grants unique powers to the Senate, allowing it to serve as the more deliberative legislative body and as a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations and treaties.
"If he doesn't someone else will"
But from a purely political perspective: If his nomination is withdrawn, won't Trump just nominate another conservative judge (who would presumably be confirmed by the republican-controlled senate)?
Yes, he will probably nominate someone else. Then the same procedure starts again and the senate will have to its job ("to provide a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations") again.
The argument that rejecting this nominee is pointless because there will be another who may be equally bad sound a lot like âÂÂif I don't, someone else willâÂÂ. That argument is discussed on the Philosophy Stack Exchange site. In this case, that argument undermines the senate's responsibility.
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There are three issues that may be on the Supreme Court's docket that very well may spell the end of a political party: Gamble v. United States, the removal of Roe v. Wade, and the question of whether a sitting president can be convicted of a crime.
Gamble v. United States is about the 'separate sovereign' issue, basically removing a form of double jeopardy across state and federal lines. This is of major interest to Republicans because it looks increasingly likely that Mueller's probe will end up indicting quite a few Senators, Representatives, and campaign people before it's over. While the President can pardon Federal crimes, he cannot pardon State crimes. Mueller is currently using this fact to compel testimony in order to increase the speed of his investigation. Republicans would much rather slow things down until Mueller can be fired.
Roe v. Wade. Conservatives have been trying to stack the Supreme Court for Roe's overturn since Reagan nominated Rehnquist in the 80's. This excites the Republican base at a time where they need all the help they can get to avoid losing the Senate along with the House come November.
At some point, is very likely that we will see federal charges levied against Trump by the Special Prosecutor, ranging anywhere from Obstruction of Justice to Tax Fraud to Seditious Conspiracy. Kavanaugh has publicly stated that he did not believe in indicting a sitting president.
Unfortunately for the Republicans, it is nearly too late for them to find someone else for the Supreme Court before the Dems take both houses of Congress, and Trump has exerted a good amount of pressure on them to keep Kavanaugh, likely due to point three. This is a job interview, not a trial, and someone as unpopular as Kavanaugh would have been withdrawn weeks ago if it weren't for these three upcoming cases and the possibility of them tipping the Supreme Court Conservative.
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Citation needed for #3. Charges have been right around the corner for two years.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:27
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To bring a treason indictment, there would have to be probable cause that the person literally engaged in war against the United States or aided those doing so. This is literally defined by the Constitution itself. Sorry to be blunt, but a treason indictment has never been anything more than a fairy tale dream of leftists who are completely ignorant of the U.S. Constitution. (And any indictment at all of the President or a member of Congress from Mueller's probe is quite unlikely.)
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:24
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@DoctorDestructo Yes, it does. Article III, Section 3: "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court." (Given the context of war, 'enemies' here wouldn't just mean "people we don't like," but rather "people engaged in war against us.")
â reirab
Oct 1 at 21:44
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@reirab Our comments are bound to be deleted in short order, but I do think they (implicitly) suggest that an improvement to this answer is needed. People seem to be missing the main takeaway from point #3, which I think is the most important point, and is completely absent from the higher scoring answers. It might be helpful to remove the speculation about Mueller being fired and the likelihood of specific criminal charges, which are obviously distracting people from the actual point.
â DoctorDestructo
Oct 1 at 23:19
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I have removed Mueller speculation and specified 'seditious conspiracy' rather than treason.
â Carduus
Oct 2 at 12:56
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This should be obvious, but in addition to the other reasons stated, even if the Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate in the mid-term elections, if Democrats prevent Brett Kavanaugh from being appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court, then the seat will be filled by someone else nominated by President Trump instead.
Brett Kavanaugh is a very undesirable candidate for this life long post in terms of his history of judicial decision making, his background as a very partisan Republican operative, and his personal character. The personal character issues include:
- multiple accusations of sexual assault,
- a history of misogyny in how he chooses and treats his clerks,
- provable instances of lying under oath,
- problems with alcohol overuse, and
- problems with personal financial management.
- He has a history of being a bully and a jerk in his personal life and that could influence how he acts with a powerful lifetime appointment in subtle ways.
If Trump nominates a replacement candidate, that candidate would in all likelihood be better vetted and would be at least someone less obviously polarizing. Instead of a judge in the model of Justice Thomas, like Kavanaugh, Trump might nominate a judge more like Justice Roberts, for example. And, while a Justice Roberts clone would still be a profound disappointment to Democrats, a Justice like that would be far more attractive to Democrats than a Justice Kavanaugh.
So, from the Democratic party's perspective, since no other nominee could be materially worse than Kavanaugh in their view, in a worse case scenario they postpone the addition of a bad new justice to the high court and deliver a defeat to the President, and in the best case scenario they also cause the addition of a less bad new justice to the high court.
Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable.
Realistically, not fighting the Kavanaugh nomination is the worst option available to the Democrats which provides them with no benefit whatsoever and would undermine their credibility as opponents of the regime and supporters of their principles. And, if they fail to strongly oppose his confirmation, they also set a precedent that would make it hard for Democrats to oppose future nominees who share similar personal or ideological flaws with Kavanaugh.
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â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 30 at 16:35
Apologies for coming to this late but I'm not sure I understand "Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable." Are you suggesting that undesirable candidates should be attacked with claims of sexual assault? If not, what are you suggesting?
â Philbo
19 hours ago
@Philbo I am suggesting that they might learn how to mobilize opposition to a scandal prone nominee, whatever those scandals or flaws might be.
â ohwilleke
7 hours ago
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Victories are hard to come by for minority parties. By borking the nomination democrats "stand up" to Trump, which polls indicate most adults, if not likely voters want. There's the suburban women appeal of fighting an alleged abuser as well, and women are expected to be critical in the election.
The flip side is what do they have to lose by not blocking it? Base motivation, which is crucial for midterms. As such, it's a win-win for the democrats to obstruct, regardless of the outcome.
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Perhaps add a link to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork#Bork_as_verb and/or an explanation, since readers may be unfamiliar with American politics from 30 years ago.
â shoover
Sep 27 at 20:45
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Apparently they were able to find a third option yesterday of lose (as i win-win-lose). Suggest to update. See #WalkAway
â Physics-Compute
Sep 28 at 12:53
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@Physics-Compute: I don't understand your point, can you please elaborate?
â dandavis
Sep 28 at 15:01
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@shoover - Disagree. I think most people's usage of "bork" is not based on that, but on the Muppets' Swedish Chef, which predates that usage by 15+ years. See "bork bork bork".
â William - Rem
Sep 30 at 23:27
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@William-Rem When used as a verb in the sense of thwarting a nomination to the Supreme Court, it is almost certainly a reference to Robert Bork.
â shoover
Oct 1 at 1:21
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Beside the (still relatively remote) hope to delay the process long enough for the next Senate to decide on it, there could be some benefits in forcing Republicans to take a stance on the Kavanaugh nomination and the accusations against him, a few months before elections. It might provide video clips to build ads, allow their opponents to pain them as insensitive to sexual assault victims or women in general, as hypocrites, etc.
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correct, the sole reason is to delay ANY nominee until after they control the senate and can just block whomever Trump puts forward by their controlling number of votes.
â jwenting
Oct 2 at 5:16
@jwenting That's not what I am saying. Also, delaying this nominee until the Democrat control the senate (if they ever do) could also be a way to force Trump to name a slightly less partisan candidate, not necessarily to keep the seat open for two years (that's more in the Republicans' playbook...).
â Relaxed
2 days ago
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Political benefits and moral benefits are often one and the same. Preventing someone accused of sexual assault from being confirmed to the Supreme Court without a thorough investigation is itself a political gain.
Because of this moral benefit, the optics of this situation favor the party that opposes confirming someone accused of such crimes without a full review.
I think this answer is directly related to a recent politics.SE question about hypocrisy: politics.stackexchange.com/q/34010/10172
â BurnsBA
Sep 28 at 15:23
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It's dubious whether it's a moral benefit (or even a long term political benefit) to establish a precedent that a nomination can be blocked by an accusation lacking evidence or arguably even credibility. But this still answers the question, because it does provide a short term political benefit.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:31
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Currently the Republicans have control of two of the branches of government (Executive and Legislative). If they pack the Supreme Court with partisan judges then they undermine the fundamental balance of power and the system of checks and balances.
For example, suppose Congress makes an undemocratic (IE: tyrannical) law such as making Trump President for life and the Supreme court has a majority of right wing partisans. There will be and can be no challenge.
In fact, Kavanaugh has already gone on record that the President should not be accountable to law (IE: he should be un-indictable) "so that he can concentrate on running the country". So if the court is packed with such judges the Republicans will be free to rig everything so that no one will ever be able to unseat their party, resist their tax manipulation to the benefit of plutocrats, etc.
Basically our entire democracy (if you can call it that, with the Electoral College, gerrymandering and Russian interference) is on the line. The democrats have everything to lose - their very raison d'etre.
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Well some manipulation such as gerrymandering would be (still) on the cards. I imagine that for something as extreme as appointing a president for life would be challenged by the pre-existing right wing partisians.
â gmatht
Sep 28 at 2:55
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Except that having all three branches under the control of one party has already happened without significant consequences (FDR's rule is one example).
â JonathanReez
Sep 30 at 4:59
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@JonathanReez Eh no. FDR led the country through the greatest destruction of the limitations on Federal Power. FDR's threats to the Supreme Court created decisions that empowered the Federal Government beyond the limits of enumerated powers in the Constitution, to include the creation of the General Welfare clause.
â Drunk Cynic
Sep 30 at 13:43
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@JonathanReez Whether one likes him or hates him, it's quite a stretch to say that there were no "significant consequences" to FDR having the Congress and (through infamous threats of effectively taking over the judicial branch) the courts during his tenure. That was probably the single most significant period in American politics of the entire 20th century, leading to the creation of the welfare state and dramatic increase in the size and power of the government.
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:42
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@reirab yeah but democracy is alive and well in the US. And the United States went on to become the world's most powerful country during FDRs rule.
â JonathanReez
Oct 2 at 7:31
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There's a variety of political benefits, it's difficult to actually list them exhaustively:
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose judges with Kavanaugh's ideology, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions.
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose nominees who are guilty of sexual harassment/assault, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions. The treatment of political actors by their own party in such cases (when those people decide to "tough things out") is a form of branding. Moore and Franken are two recent examples that contrast with each other.
- Delay of a confirmation allows the situation to change, the senate may flip after the election for example.
- Successful withdrawal of the nomination is a political win and will energize the base while depressing turnout for the Republicans. This is the common wisdom at least, and can mirror what happened with the attempted ACA repeal.
- Dragging out the process is helpful in energizing the base this close to an election, Kavanaugh is a historically unpopular nominee, keeping him in the news is good for the party as a whole.
- Other potential nominees can be marginal or even significant improvements over Kavanaugh in a variety of ways. For example there were rumors that Trump wanted to nominate his own sister, who actually seems to quite moderate ideologically as a judge (compared to federalist society clones), and is quite old compared to Kavanaugh.
- Other possible nominees can have their own weaknesses, allowing them to potentially be defeated in turn or forcing the Republicans into more moderate choices. For example, Barret is in a sect of Christianity where her title in church is literally "handmaiden" and her views on abortion are well known, Senator Collins would be incapable of pretending that she thinks Roe v. Wade is "settled law".
- "Borking" Kavanaugh is very fitting since their disqualification (prior to the multiple sexual assault allegations) is that they were first highly partisan political operatives. Democrats would be insane to not oppose someone who is their self-admitted political foe. An enemy ideologue leads to unwanted policy outcomes, which can still serve to lead to political power. A powerful partisan enemy will always lead to the worst political outcome. Both parties can draw political power from Roe v. Wade for example, but it would be hard to find one Democrat who thinks Bush v. Gore lead to a good political outcome.
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You've made several good points here, but I would caution against using the term "guilty" for someone who has not been charged and convicted. Whatever you or I think of Kavanaugh, a confirmation is not a trial.
â Jon of All Trades
Oct 1 at 16:08
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The Democrats have vowed to not allow ANY nominee put forward by President Trump to be confirmed.
At the moment the only way they can do that is through the interminable smear campaigns we've seen waged against Justice Kavanaugh.
Until a few years ago, when the fillibuster was removed as an option by the (then) democrat senate because they didn't want the Republicans to use it against them, that was their chosen tactic as it didn't make them look half as bad in the public eye.
Their hope is that if they can delay the confirmation vote until after the midterm elections in November, they will have a majority in the senate and use that to just vote any nominee whatsoever into rejection, thus making it impossible for the President to appoint any justices (or indeed anyone in any position requiring a senate vote) at all until the 2020 presidential elections.
That's the game, and they'll use whatever tactics they need to play it. This is not about Kavanaugh or Ford, Kavanaugh is an unfortunate victim and Ford a tool in their arsenal.
This isn't about right or wrong, they couldn't care less whether Kavanaugh did what Ford claimed he did (which may or may not have any credibility, that too is irrelevant to them).
All that matters to them is that this circus delays the confirmation vote, and they'll milk it until the vote has been lifted over the midterms.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next scripted "accusations" are already sitting in some democrat senator's file folder, ready to be "revealed" the moment the FBI says there's nothing to prevent a confirmation vote, thus delaying things even further.
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11 Answers
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If senators can draw out the nomination process long enough, they have a chance of having a Democratic majority in the Senate during the next confirmation. Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with.
23
That's if they allow one at all. Some Democrats have suggested no Trump nominees would be acceptible
â Machavity
Sep 28 at 14:47
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"Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with." - That's not entirely true. Just as we saw with Garland, the President can nominate the person they want, and Senate can just flounder on it. Then political games ensue, with everyone saying the other party isn't doing their job.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:36
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@elliotsvensson It would be interesting to see Democrats attempt to stall a confirmation for over a 1+ years... the political flak to just confirm and move on with life would surely add up. It's entirely possible Republicans could ram through a conservative nominee this way.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:45
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@BobE, "have a chance" implies speculation, too, I guess.
â elliot svensson
Sep 28 at 20:16
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@SnakeDoc: But with a Senate majority (or even with a few sensible Republicans from "purple states"), stalling a confirmation isn't the Democrats' only option, They can simply vote to reject an unsatisfactory nominee.
â jamesqf
Sep 29 at 17:03
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113
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If senators can draw out the nomination process long enough, they have a chance of having a Democratic majority in the Senate during the next confirmation. Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with.
23
That's if they allow one at all. Some Democrats have suggested no Trump nominees would be acceptible
â Machavity
Sep 28 at 14:47
9
"Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with." - That's not entirely true. Just as we saw with Garland, the President can nominate the person they want, and Senate can just flounder on it. Then political games ensue, with everyone saying the other party isn't doing their job.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:36
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@elliotsvensson It would be interesting to see Democrats attempt to stall a confirmation for over a 1+ years... the political flak to just confirm and move on with life would surely add up. It's entirely possible Republicans could ram through a conservative nominee this way.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:45
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@BobE, "have a chance" implies speculation, too, I guess.
â elliot svensson
Sep 28 at 20:16
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@SnakeDoc: But with a Senate majority (or even with a few sensible Republicans from "purple states"), stalling a confirmation isn't the Democrats' only option, They can simply vote to reject an unsatisfactory nominee.
â jamesqf
Sep 29 at 17:03
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113
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up vote
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If senators can draw out the nomination process long enough, they have a chance of having a Democratic majority in the Senate during the next confirmation. Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with.
If senators can draw out the nomination process long enough, they have a chance of having a Democratic majority in the Senate during the next confirmation. Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with.
answered Sep 27 at 18:43
elliot svensson
1,3741415
1,3741415
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That's if they allow one at all. Some Democrats have suggested no Trump nominees would be acceptible
â Machavity
Sep 28 at 14:47
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"Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with." - That's not entirely true. Just as we saw with Garland, the President can nominate the person they want, and Senate can just flounder on it. Then political games ensue, with everyone saying the other party isn't doing their job.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:36
1
@elliotsvensson It would be interesting to see Democrats attempt to stall a confirmation for over a 1+ years... the political flak to just confirm and move on with life would surely add up. It's entirely possible Republicans could ram through a conservative nominee this way.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:45
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@BobE, "have a chance" implies speculation, too, I guess.
â elliot svensson
Sep 28 at 20:16
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@SnakeDoc: But with a Senate majority (or even with a few sensible Republicans from "purple states"), stalling a confirmation isn't the Democrats' only option, They can simply vote to reject an unsatisfactory nominee.
â jamesqf
Sep 29 at 17:03
 |Â
show 5 more comments
23
That's if they allow one at all. Some Democrats have suggested no Trump nominees would be acceptible
â Machavity
Sep 28 at 14:47
9
"Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with." - That's not entirely true. Just as we saw with Garland, the President can nominate the person they want, and Senate can just flounder on it. Then political games ensue, with everyone saying the other party isn't doing their job.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:36
1
@elliotsvensson It would be interesting to see Democrats attempt to stall a confirmation for over a 1+ years... the political flak to just confirm and move on with life would surely add up. It's entirely possible Republicans could ram through a conservative nominee this way.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:45
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@BobE, "have a chance" implies speculation, too, I guess.
â elliot svensson
Sep 28 at 20:16
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@SnakeDoc: But with a Senate majority (or even with a few sensible Republicans from "purple states"), stalling a confirmation isn't the Democrats' only option, They can simply vote to reject an unsatisfactory nominee.
â jamesqf
Sep 29 at 17:03
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23
That's if they allow one at all. Some Democrats have suggested no Trump nominees would be acceptible
â Machavity
Sep 28 at 14:47
That's if they allow one at all. Some Democrats have suggested no Trump nominees would be acceptible
â Machavity
Sep 28 at 14:47
9
9
"Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with." - That's not entirely true. Just as we saw with Garland, the President can nominate the person they want, and Senate can just flounder on it. Then political games ensue, with everyone saying the other party isn't doing their job.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:36
"Then Trump would have to nominate somebody that Democrats are happy with." - That's not entirely true. Just as we saw with Garland, the President can nominate the person they want, and Senate can just flounder on it. Then political games ensue, with everyone saying the other party isn't doing their job.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:36
1
1
@elliotsvensson It would be interesting to see Democrats attempt to stall a confirmation for over a 1+ years... the political flak to just confirm and move on with life would surely add up. It's entirely possible Republicans could ram through a conservative nominee this way.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:45
@elliotsvensson It would be interesting to see Democrats attempt to stall a confirmation for over a 1+ years... the political flak to just confirm and move on with life would surely add up. It's entirely possible Republicans could ram through a conservative nominee this way.
â SnakeDoc
Sep 28 at 17:45
1
1
@BobE, "have a chance" implies speculation, too, I guess.
â elliot svensson
Sep 28 at 20:16
@BobE, "have a chance" implies speculation, too, I guess.
â elliot svensson
Sep 28 at 20:16
2
2
@SnakeDoc: But with a Senate majority (or even with a few sensible Republicans from "purple states"), stalling a confirmation isn't the Democrats' only option, They can simply vote to reject an unsatisfactory nominee.
â jamesqf
Sep 29 at 17:03
@SnakeDoc: But with a Senate majority (or even with a few sensible Republicans from "purple states"), stalling a confirmation isn't the Democrats' only option, They can simply vote to reject an unsatisfactory nominee.
â jamesqf
Sep 29 at 17:03
 |Â
show 5 more comments
up vote
72
down vote
Expanding on Elliot's answer.
Even if rushed, there is a process to approving a President's nomination. Nominating and approving another person before the November election would be possible, but it would be tricky to do it that quickly.
Could Republicans really get Barrett or another nominee confirmed
before then? And if not, could they confirm her in the so-called
lame-duck session after the midterms but before the new Congress meets
on Jan. 3.
The answers are âÂÂpossiblyâ and âÂÂprobablyâ â but the timing is getting
dicier by the day.
(written on 9/25)
The Republicans right now just barely have a majority of the Senate. There's a Senate election in just 40 days. So there's a chance they could lose control of the Senate before anyone else could be nominated and voted on. If that were to happen, then the President would be forced to nominate someone who could get at least some Democratic support.
That being said, its not a great chance. Only about a third of Senate seats are up, and only about a third of those are held by Republicans. 538 currently gives the Democrats about 31.5% of taking control.
However, that's not too much longer odds than the Republicans faced in their gambit of refusing hearings for Merrick Garland, and they were lucky. Sometimes you beat the odds when you take these gambles, and if goodwill from the other side isn't a consideration (which its fair to say hasn't been a possibility during Mitch McConnell's entire chairmanship), there isn't much downside to not trying.
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Philippâ¦
Sep 28 at 8:23
15
Also, don't underestimate the importance of following through on a tit-for-tat strategy. The GOP will see perverse incentives to keep obstructing judicial nominations if it doesn't come back to bite them (or at least threaten to).
â nomen
Sep 28 at 20:54
2
Even IF the Democrats take the Senate these coming midterms, they wonâÂÂt actually be seated until January. Republicans could vote on and confirm a nominee in the interim, albeit not without some political blowback.
â eggyal
Sep 30 at 7:03
1
I asked a question about this before and the only answer was that a lame duck Senate session can confirm just as well. So there is no November deadline. Even if Republicans do lose, they can confirm someone after the election (with no political price to pay at that point).
â grovkin
Sep 30 at 9:27
add a comment |Â
up vote
72
down vote
Expanding on Elliot's answer.
Even if rushed, there is a process to approving a President's nomination. Nominating and approving another person before the November election would be possible, but it would be tricky to do it that quickly.
Could Republicans really get Barrett or another nominee confirmed
before then? And if not, could they confirm her in the so-called
lame-duck session after the midterms but before the new Congress meets
on Jan. 3.
The answers are âÂÂpossiblyâ and âÂÂprobablyâ â but the timing is getting
dicier by the day.
(written on 9/25)
The Republicans right now just barely have a majority of the Senate. There's a Senate election in just 40 days. So there's a chance they could lose control of the Senate before anyone else could be nominated and voted on. If that were to happen, then the President would be forced to nominate someone who could get at least some Democratic support.
That being said, its not a great chance. Only about a third of Senate seats are up, and only about a third of those are held by Republicans. 538 currently gives the Democrats about 31.5% of taking control.
However, that's not too much longer odds than the Republicans faced in their gambit of refusing hearings for Merrick Garland, and they were lucky. Sometimes you beat the odds when you take these gambles, and if goodwill from the other side isn't a consideration (which its fair to say hasn't been a possibility during Mitch McConnell's entire chairmanship), there isn't much downside to not trying.
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Philippâ¦
Sep 28 at 8:23
15
Also, don't underestimate the importance of following through on a tit-for-tat strategy. The GOP will see perverse incentives to keep obstructing judicial nominations if it doesn't come back to bite them (or at least threaten to).
â nomen
Sep 28 at 20:54
2
Even IF the Democrats take the Senate these coming midterms, they wonâÂÂt actually be seated until January. Republicans could vote on and confirm a nominee in the interim, albeit not without some political blowback.
â eggyal
Sep 30 at 7:03
1
I asked a question about this before and the only answer was that a lame duck Senate session can confirm just as well. So there is no November deadline. Even if Republicans do lose, they can confirm someone after the election (with no political price to pay at that point).
â grovkin
Sep 30 at 9:27
add a comment |Â
up vote
72
down vote
up vote
72
down vote
Expanding on Elliot's answer.
Even if rushed, there is a process to approving a President's nomination. Nominating and approving another person before the November election would be possible, but it would be tricky to do it that quickly.
Could Republicans really get Barrett or another nominee confirmed
before then? And if not, could they confirm her in the so-called
lame-duck session after the midterms but before the new Congress meets
on Jan. 3.
The answers are âÂÂpossiblyâ and âÂÂprobablyâ â but the timing is getting
dicier by the day.
(written on 9/25)
The Republicans right now just barely have a majority of the Senate. There's a Senate election in just 40 days. So there's a chance they could lose control of the Senate before anyone else could be nominated and voted on. If that were to happen, then the President would be forced to nominate someone who could get at least some Democratic support.
That being said, its not a great chance. Only about a third of Senate seats are up, and only about a third of those are held by Republicans. 538 currently gives the Democrats about 31.5% of taking control.
However, that's not too much longer odds than the Republicans faced in their gambit of refusing hearings for Merrick Garland, and they were lucky. Sometimes you beat the odds when you take these gambles, and if goodwill from the other side isn't a consideration (which its fair to say hasn't been a possibility during Mitch McConnell's entire chairmanship), there isn't much downside to not trying.
Expanding on Elliot's answer.
Even if rushed, there is a process to approving a President's nomination. Nominating and approving another person before the November election would be possible, but it would be tricky to do it that quickly.
Could Republicans really get Barrett or another nominee confirmed
before then? And if not, could they confirm her in the so-called
lame-duck session after the midterms but before the new Congress meets
on Jan. 3.
The answers are âÂÂpossiblyâ and âÂÂprobablyâ â but the timing is getting
dicier by the day.
(written on 9/25)
The Republicans right now just barely have a majority of the Senate. There's a Senate election in just 40 days. So there's a chance they could lose control of the Senate before anyone else could be nominated and voted on. If that were to happen, then the President would be forced to nominate someone who could get at least some Democratic support.
That being said, its not a great chance. Only about a third of Senate seats are up, and only about a third of those are held by Republicans. 538 currently gives the Democrats about 31.5% of taking control.
However, that's not too much longer odds than the Republicans faced in their gambit of refusing hearings for Merrick Garland, and they were lucky. Sometimes you beat the odds when you take these gambles, and if goodwill from the other side isn't a consideration (which its fair to say hasn't been a possibility during Mitch McConnell's entire chairmanship), there isn't much downside to not trying.
edited Oct 2 at 10:06
Mark Booth
1053
1053
answered Sep 27 at 20:01
T.E.D.
5,2931327
5,2931327
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Philippâ¦
Sep 28 at 8:23
15
Also, don't underestimate the importance of following through on a tit-for-tat strategy. The GOP will see perverse incentives to keep obstructing judicial nominations if it doesn't come back to bite them (or at least threaten to).
â nomen
Sep 28 at 20:54
2
Even IF the Democrats take the Senate these coming midterms, they wonâÂÂt actually be seated until January. Republicans could vote on and confirm a nominee in the interim, albeit not without some political blowback.
â eggyal
Sep 30 at 7:03
1
I asked a question about this before and the only answer was that a lame duck Senate session can confirm just as well. So there is no November deadline. Even if Republicans do lose, they can confirm someone after the election (with no political price to pay at that point).
â grovkin
Sep 30 at 9:27
add a comment |Â
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Philippâ¦
Sep 28 at 8:23
15
Also, don't underestimate the importance of following through on a tit-for-tat strategy. The GOP will see perverse incentives to keep obstructing judicial nominations if it doesn't come back to bite them (or at least threaten to).
â nomen
Sep 28 at 20:54
2
Even IF the Democrats take the Senate these coming midterms, they wonâÂÂt actually be seated until January. Republicans could vote on and confirm a nominee in the interim, albeit not without some political blowback.
â eggyal
Sep 30 at 7:03
1
I asked a question about this before and the only answer was that a lame duck Senate session can confirm just as well. So there is no November deadline. Even if Republicans do lose, they can confirm someone after the election (with no political price to pay at that point).
â grovkin
Sep 30 at 9:27
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Philippâ¦
Sep 28 at 8:23
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Philippâ¦
Sep 28 at 8:23
15
15
Also, don't underestimate the importance of following through on a tit-for-tat strategy. The GOP will see perverse incentives to keep obstructing judicial nominations if it doesn't come back to bite them (or at least threaten to).
â nomen
Sep 28 at 20:54
Also, don't underestimate the importance of following through on a tit-for-tat strategy. The GOP will see perverse incentives to keep obstructing judicial nominations if it doesn't come back to bite them (or at least threaten to).
â nomen
Sep 28 at 20:54
2
2
Even IF the Democrats take the Senate these coming midterms, they wonâÂÂt actually be seated until January. Republicans could vote on and confirm a nominee in the interim, albeit not without some political blowback.
â eggyal
Sep 30 at 7:03
Even IF the Democrats take the Senate these coming midterms, they wonâÂÂt actually be seated until January. Republicans could vote on and confirm a nominee in the interim, albeit not without some political blowback.
â eggyal
Sep 30 at 7:03
1
1
I asked a question about this before and the only answer was that a lame duck Senate session can confirm just as well. So there is no November deadline. Even if Republicans do lose, they can confirm someone after the election (with no political price to pay at that point).
â grovkin
Sep 30 at 9:27
I asked a question about this before and the only answer was that a lame duck Senate session can confirm just as well. So there is no November deadline. Even if Republicans do lose, they can confirm someone after the election (with no political price to pay at that point).
â grovkin
Sep 30 at 9:27
add a comment |Â
up vote
38
down vote
Senators doing their job
the moral benefits of not having an accused sex offender on the Supreme Court.
That's not just a moral benefit, that's the senate's job. From senate.gov (emphasis is mine):
The Constitution grants unique powers to the Senate, allowing it to serve as the more deliberative legislative body and as a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations and treaties.
"If he doesn't someone else will"
But from a purely political perspective: If his nomination is withdrawn, won't Trump just nominate another conservative judge (who would presumably be confirmed by the republican-controlled senate)?
Yes, he will probably nominate someone else. Then the same procedure starts again and the senate will have to its job ("to provide a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations") again.
The argument that rejecting this nominee is pointless because there will be another who may be equally bad sound a lot like âÂÂif I don't, someone else willâÂÂ. That argument is discussed on the Philosophy Stack Exchange site. In this case, that argument undermines the senate's responsibility.
add a comment |Â
up vote
38
down vote
Senators doing their job
the moral benefits of not having an accused sex offender on the Supreme Court.
That's not just a moral benefit, that's the senate's job. From senate.gov (emphasis is mine):
The Constitution grants unique powers to the Senate, allowing it to serve as the more deliberative legislative body and as a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations and treaties.
"If he doesn't someone else will"
But from a purely political perspective: If his nomination is withdrawn, won't Trump just nominate another conservative judge (who would presumably be confirmed by the republican-controlled senate)?
Yes, he will probably nominate someone else. Then the same procedure starts again and the senate will have to its job ("to provide a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations") again.
The argument that rejecting this nominee is pointless because there will be another who may be equally bad sound a lot like âÂÂif I don't, someone else willâÂÂ. That argument is discussed on the Philosophy Stack Exchange site. In this case, that argument undermines the senate's responsibility.
add a comment |Â
up vote
38
down vote
up vote
38
down vote
Senators doing their job
the moral benefits of not having an accused sex offender on the Supreme Court.
That's not just a moral benefit, that's the senate's job. From senate.gov (emphasis is mine):
The Constitution grants unique powers to the Senate, allowing it to serve as the more deliberative legislative body and as a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations and treaties.
"If he doesn't someone else will"
But from a purely political perspective: If his nomination is withdrawn, won't Trump just nominate another conservative judge (who would presumably be confirmed by the republican-controlled senate)?
Yes, he will probably nominate someone else. Then the same procedure starts again and the senate will have to its job ("to provide a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations") again.
The argument that rejecting this nominee is pointless because there will be another who may be equally bad sound a lot like âÂÂif I don't, someone else willâÂÂ. That argument is discussed on the Philosophy Stack Exchange site. In this case, that argument undermines the senate's responsibility.
Senators doing their job
the moral benefits of not having an accused sex offender on the Supreme Court.
That's not just a moral benefit, that's the senate's job. From senate.gov (emphasis is mine):
The Constitution grants unique powers to the Senate, allowing it to serve as the more deliberative legislative body and as a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations and treaties.
"If he doesn't someone else will"
But from a purely political perspective: If his nomination is withdrawn, won't Trump just nominate another conservative judge (who would presumably be confirmed by the republican-controlled senate)?
Yes, he will probably nominate someone else. Then the same procedure starts again and the senate will have to its job ("to provide a check on the executive and judicial branches by providing advice and consent on nominations") again.
The argument that rejecting this nominee is pointless because there will be another who may be equally bad sound a lot like âÂÂif I don't, someone else willâÂÂ. That argument is discussed on the Philosophy Stack Exchange site. In this case, that argument undermines the senate's responsibility.
edited Sep 28 at 0:47
answered Sep 27 at 21:29
JJJ
2,7531136
2,7531136
add a comment |Â
add a comment |Â
up vote
28
down vote
There are three issues that may be on the Supreme Court's docket that very well may spell the end of a political party: Gamble v. United States, the removal of Roe v. Wade, and the question of whether a sitting president can be convicted of a crime.
Gamble v. United States is about the 'separate sovereign' issue, basically removing a form of double jeopardy across state and federal lines. This is of major interest to Republicans because it looks increasingly likely that Mueller's probe will end up indicting quite a few Senators, Representatives, and campaign people before it's over. While the President can pardon Federal crimes, he cannot pardon State crimes. Mueller is currently using this fact to compel testimony in order to increase the speed of his investigation. Republicans would much rather slow things down until Mueller can be fired.
Roe v. Wade. Conservatives have been trying to stack the Supreme Court for Roe's overturn since Reagan nominated Rehnquist in the 80's. This excites the Republican base at a time where they need all the help they can get to avoid losing the Senate along with the House come November.
At some point, is very likely that we will see federal charges levied against Trump by the Special Prosecutor, ranging anywhere from Obstruction of Justice to Tax Fraud to Seditious Conspiracy. Kavanaugh has publicly stated that he did not believe in indicting a sitting president.
Unfortunately for the Republicans, it is nearly too late for them to find someone else for the Supreme Court before the Dems take both houses of Congress, and Trump has exerted a good amount of pressure on them to keep Kavanaugh, likely due to point three. This is a job interview, not a trial, and someone as unpopular as Kavanaugh would have been withdrawn weeks ago if it weren't for these three upcoming cases and the possibility of them tipping the Supreme Court Conservative.
4
Citation needed for #3. Charges have been right around the corner for two years.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:27
2
To bring a treason indictment, there would have to be probable cause that the person literally engaged in war against the United States or aided those doing so. This is literally defined by the Constitution itself. Sorry to be blunt, but a treason indictment has never been anything more than a fairy tale dream of leftists who are completely ignorant of the U.S. Constitution. (And any indictment at all of the President or a member of Congress from Mueller's probe is quite unlikely.)
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:24
1
@DoctorDestructo Yes, it does. Article III, Section 3: "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court." (Given the context of war, 'enemies' here wouldn't just mean "people we don't like," but rather "people engaged in war against us.")
â reirab
Oct 1 at 21:44
1
@reirab Our comments are bound to be deleted in short order, but I do think they (implicitly) suggest that an improvement to this answer is needed. People seem to be missing the main takeaway from point #3, which I think is the most important point, and is completely absent from the higher scoring answers. It might be helpful to remove the speculation about Mueller being fired and the likelihood of specific criminal charges, which are obviously distracting people from the actual point.
â DoctorDestructo
Oct 1 at 23:19
1
I have removed Mueller speculation and specified 'seditious conspiracy' rather than treason.
â Carduus
Oct 2 at 12:56
 |Â
show 3 more comments
up vote
28
down vote
There are three issues that may be on the Supreme Court's docket that very well may spell the end of a political party: Gamble v. United States, the removal of Roe v. Wade, and the question of whether a sitting president can be convicted of a crime.
Gamble v. United States is about the 'separate sovereign' issue, basically removing a form of double jeopardy across state and federal lines. This is of major interest to Republicans because it looks increasingly likely that Mueller's probe will end up indicting quite a few Senators, Representatives, and campaign people before it's over. While the President can pardon Federal crimes, he cannot pardon State crimes. Mueller is currently using this fact to compel testimony in order to increase the speed of his investigation. Republicans would much rather slow things down until Mueller can be fired.
Roe v. Wade. Conservatives have been trying to stack the Supreme Court for Roe's overturn since Reagan nominated Rehnquist in the 80's. This excites the Republican base at a time where they need all the help they can get to avoid losing the Senate along with the House come November.
At some point, is very likely that we will see federal charges levied against Trump by the Special Prosecutor, ranging anywhere from Obstruction of Justice to Tax Fraud to Seditious Conspiracy. Kavanaugh has publicly stated that he did not believe in indicting a sitting president.
Unfortunately for the Republicans, it is nearly too late for them to find someone else for the Supreme Court before the Dems take both houses of Congress, and Trump has exerted a good amount of pressure on them to keep Kavanaugh, likely due to point three. This is a job interview, not a trial, and someone as unpopular as Kavanaugh would have been withdrawn weeks ago if it weren't for these three upcoming cases and the possibility of them tipping the Supreme Court Conservative.
4
Citation needed for #3. Charges have been right around the corner for two years.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:27
2
To bring a treason indictment, there would have to be probable cause that the person literally engaged in war against the United States or aided those doing so. This is literally defined by the Constitution itself. Sorry to be blunt, but a treason indictment has never been anything more than a fairy tale dream of leftists who are completely ignorant of the U.S. Constitution. (And any indictment at all of the President or a member of Congress from Mueller's probe is quite unlikely.)
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:24
1
@DoctorDestructo Yes, it does. Article III, Section 3: "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court." (Given the context of war, 'enemies' here wouldn't just mean "people we don't like," but rather "people engaged in war against us.")
â reirab
Oct 1 at 21:44
1
@reirab Our comments are bound to be deleted in short order, but I do think they (implicitly) suggest that an improvement to this answer is needed. People seem to be missing the main takeaway from point #3, which I think is the most important point, and is completely absent from the higher scoring answers. It might be helpful to remove the speculation about Mueller being fired and the likelihood of specific criminal charges, which are obviously distracting people from the actual point.
â DoctorDestructo
Oct 1 at 23:19
1
I have removed Mueller speculation and specified 'seditious conspiracy' rather than treason.
â Carduus
Oct 2 at 12:56
 |Â
show 3 more comments
up vote
28
down vote
up vote
28
down vote
There are three issues that may be on the Supreme Court's docket that very well may spell the end of a political party: Gamble v. United States, the removal of Roe v. Wade, and the question of whether a sitting president can be convicted of a crime.
Gamble v. United States is about the 'separate sovereign' issue, basically removing a form of double jeopardy across state and federal lines. This is of major interest to Republicans because it looks increasingly likely that Mueller's probe will end up indicting quite a few Senators, Representatives, and campaign people before it's over. While the President can pardon Federal crimes, he cannot pardon State crimes. Mueller is currently using this fact to compel testimony in order to increase the speed of his investigation. Republicans would much rather slow things down until Mueller can be fired.
Roe v. Wade. Conservatives have been trying to stack the Supreme Court for Roe's overturn since Reagan nominated Rehnquist in the 80's. This excites the Republican base at a time where they need all the help they can get to avoid losing the Senate along with the House come November.
At some point, is very likely that we will see federal charges levied against Trump by the Special Prosecutor, ranging anywhere from Obstruction of Justice to Tax Fraud to Seditious Conspiracy. Kavanaugh has publicly stated that he did not believe in indicting a sitting president.
Unfortunately for the Republicans, it is nearly too late for them to find someone else for the Supreme Court before the Dems take both houses of Congress, and Trump has exerted a good amount of pressure on them to keep Kavanaugh, likely due to point three. This is a job interview, not a trial, and someone as unpopular as Kavanaugh would have been withdrawn weeks ago if it weren't for these three upcoming cases and the possibility of them tipping the Supreme Court Conservative.
There are three issues that may be on the Supreme Court's docket that very well may spell the end of a political party: Gamble v. United States, the removal of Roe v. Wade, and the question of whether a sitting president can be convicted of a crime.
Gamble v. United States is about the 'separate sovereign' issue, basically removing a form of double jeopardy across state and federal lines. This is of major interest to Republicans because it looks increasingly likely that Mueller's probe will end up indicting quite a few Senators, Representatives, and campaign people before it's over. While the President can pardon Federal crimes, he cannot pardon State crimes. Mueller is currently using this fact to compel testimony in order to increase the speed of his investigation. Republicans would much rather slow things down until Mueller can be fired.
Roe v. Wade. Conservatives have been trying to stack the Supreme Court for Roe's overturn since Reagan nominated Rehnquist in the 80's. This excites the Republican base at a time where they need all the help they can get to avoid losing the Senate along with the House come November.
At some point, is very likely that we will see federal charges levied against Trump by the Special Prosecutor, ranging anywhere from Obstruction of Justice to Tax Fraud to Seditious Conspiracy. Kavanaugh has publicly stated that he did not believe in indicting a sitting president.
Unfortunately for the Republicans, it is nearly too late for them to find someone else for the Supreme Court before the Dems take both houses of Congress, and Trump has exerted a good amount of pressure on them to keep Kavanaugh, likely due to point three. This is a job interview, not a trial, and someone as unpopular as Kavanaugh would have been withdrawn weeks ago if it weren't for these three upcoming cases and the possibility of them tipping the Supreme Court Conservative.
edited Oct 2 at 12:55
answered Sep 27 at 19:20
Carduus
3,008618
3,008618
4
Citation needed for #3. Charges have been right around the corner for two years.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:27
2
To bring a treason indictment, there would have to be probable cause that the person literally engaged in war against the United States or aided those doing so. This is literally defined by the Constitution itself. Sorry to be blunt, but a treason indictment has never been anything more than a fairy tale dream of leftists who are completely ignorant of the U.S. Constitution. (And any indictment at all of the President or a member of Congress from Mueller's probe is quite unlikely.)
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:24
1
@DoctorDestructo Yes, it does. Article III, Section 3: "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court." (Given the context of war, 'enemies' here wouldn't just mean "people we don't like," but rather "people engaged in war against us.")
â reirab
Oct 1 at 21:44
1
@reirab Our comments are bound to be deleted in short order, but I do think they (implicitly) suggest that an improvement to this answer is needed. People seem to be missing the main takeaway from point #3, which I think is the most important point, and is completely absent from the higher scoring answers. It might be helpful to remove the speculation about Mueller being fired and the likelihood of specific criminal charges, which are obviously distracting people from the actual point.
â DoctorDestructo
Oct 1 at 23:19
1
I have removed Mueller speculation and specified 'seditious conspiracy' rather than treason.
â Carduus
Oct 2 at 12:56
 |Â
show 3 more comments
4
Citation needed for #3. Charges have been right around the corner for two years.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:27
2
To bring a treason indictment, there would have to be probable cause that the person literally engaged in war against the United States or aided those doing so. This is literally defined by the Constitution itself. Sorry to be blunt, but a treason indictment has never been anything more than a fairy tale dream of leftists who are completely ignorant of the U.S. Constitution. (And any indictment at all of the President or a member of Congress from Mueller's probe is quite unlikely.)
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:24
1
@DoctorDestructo Yes, it does. Article III, Section 3: "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court." (Given the context of war, 'enemies' here wouldn't just mean "people we don't like," but rather "people engaged in war against us.")
â reirab
Oct 1 at 21:44
1
@reirab Our comments are bound to be deleted in short order, but I do think they (implicitly) suggest that an improvement to this answer is needed. People seem to be missing the main takeaway from point #3, which I think is the most important point, and is completely absent from the higher scoring answers. It might be helpful to remove the speculation about Mueller being fired and the likelihood of specific criminal charges, which are obviously distracting people from the actual point.
â DoctorDestructo
Oct 1 at 23:19
1
I have removed Mueller speculation and specified 'seditious conspiracy' rather than treason.
â Carduus
Oct 2 at 12:56
4
4
Citation needed for #3. Charges have been right around the corner for two years.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:27
Citation needed for #3. Charges have been right around the corner for two years.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:27
2
2
To bring a treason indictment, there would have to be probable cause that the person literally engaged in war against the United States or aided those doing so. This is literally defined by the Constitution itself. Sorry to be blunt, but a treason indictment has never been anything more than a fairy tale dream of leftists who are completely ignorant of the U.S. Constitution. (And any indictment at all of the President or a member of Congress from Mueller's probe is quite unlikely.)
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:24
To bring a treason indictment, there would have to be probable cause that the person literally engaged in war against the United States or aided those doing so. This is literally defined by the Constitution itself. Sorry to be blunt, but a treason indictment has never been anything more than a fairy tale dream of leftists who are completely ignorant of the U.S. Constitution. (And any indictment at all of the President or a member of Congress from Mueller's probe is quite unlikely.)
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:24
1
1
@DoctorDestructo Yes, it does. Article III, Section 3: "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court." (Given the context of war, 'enemies' here wouldn't just mean "people we don't like," but rather "people engaged in war against us.")
â reirab
Oct 1 at 21:44
@DoctorDestructo Yes, it does. Article III, Section 3: "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court." (Given the context of war, 'enemies' here wouldn't just mean "people we don't like," but rather "people engaged in war against us.")
â reirab
Oct 1 at 21:44
1
1
@reirab Our comments are bound to be deleted in short order, but I do think they (implicitly) suggest that an improvement to this answer is needed. People seem to be missing the main takeaway from point #3, which I think is the most important point, and is completely absent from the higher scoring answers. It might be helpful to remove the speculation about Mueller being fired and the likelihood of specific criminal charges, which are obviously distracting people from the actual point.
â DoctorDestructo
Oct 1 at 23:19
@reirab Our comments are bound to be deleted in short order, but I do think they (implicitly) suggest that an improvement to this answer is needed. People seem to be missing the main takeaway from point #3, which I think is the most important point, and is completely absent from the higher scoring answers. It might be helpful to remove the speculation about Mueller being fired and the likelihood of specific criminal charges, which are obviously distracting people from the actual point.
â DoctorDestructo
Oct 1 at 23:19
1
1
I have removed Mueller speculation and specified 'seditious conspiracy' rather than treason.
â Carduus
Oct 2 at 12:56
I have removed Mueller speculation and specified 'seditious conspiracy' rather than treason.
â Carduus
Oct 2 at 12:56
 |Â
show 3 more comments
up vote
24
down vote
This should be obvious, but in addition to the other reasons stated, even if the Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate in the mid-term elections, if Democrats prevent Brett Kavanaugh from being appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court, then the seat will be filled by someone else nominated by President Trump instead.
Brett Kavanaugh is a very undesirable candidate for this life long post in terms of his history of judicial decision making, his background as a very partisan Republican operative, and his personal character. The personal character issues include:
- multiple accusations of sexual assault,
- a history of misogyny in how he chooses and treats his clerks,
- provable instances of lying under oath,
- problems with alcohol overuse, and
- problems with personal financial management.
- He has a history of being a bully and a jerk in his personal life and that could influence how he acts with a powerful lifetime appointment in subtle ways.
If Trump nominates a replacement candidate, that candidate would in all likelihood be better vetted and would be at least someone less obviously polarizing. Instead of a judge in the model of Justice Thomas, like Kavanaugh, Trump might nominate a judge more like Justice Roberts, for example. And, while a Justice Roberts clone would still be a profound disappointment to Democrats, a Justice like that would be far more attractive to Democrats than a Justice Kavanaugh.
So, from the Democratic party's perspective, since no other nominee could be materially worse than Kavanaugh in their view, in a worse case scenario they postpone the addition of a bad new justice to the high court and deliver a defeat to the President, and in the best case scenario they also cause the addition of a less bad new justice to the high court.
Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable.
Realistically, not fighting the Kavanaugh nomination is the worst option available to the Democrats which provides them with no benefit whatsoever and would undermine their credibility as opponents of the regime and supporters of their principles. And, if they fail to strongly oppose his confirmation, they also set a precedent that would make it hard for Democrats to oppose future nominees who share similar personal or ideological flaws with Kavanaugh.
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 30 at 16:35
Apologies for coming to this late but I'm not sure I understand "Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable." Are you suggesting that undesirable candidates should be attacked with claims of sexual assault? If not, what are you suggesting?
â Philbo
19 hours ago
@Philbo I am suggesting that they might learn how to mobilize opposition to a scandal prone nominee, whatever those scandals or flaws might be.
â ohwilleke
7 hours ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
24
down vote
This should be obvious, but in addition to the other reasons stated, even if the Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate in the mid-term elections, if Democrats prevent Brett Kavanaugh from being appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court, then the seat will be filled by someone else nominated by President Trump instead.
Brett Kavanaugh is a very undesirable candidate for this life long post in terms of his history of judicial decision making, his background as a very partisan Republican operative, and his personal character. The personal character issues include:
- multiple accusations of sexual assault,
- a history of misogyny in how he chooses and treats his clerks,
- provable instances of lying under oath,
- problems with alcohol overuse, and
- problems with personal financial management.
- He has a history of being a bully and a jerk in his personal life and that could influence how he acts with a powerful lifetime appointment in subtle ways.
If Trump nominates a replacement candidate, that candidate would in all likelihood be better vetted and would be at least someone less obviously polarizing. Instead of a judge in the model of Justice Thomas, like Kavanaugh, Trump might nominate a judge more like Justice Roberts, for example. And, while a Justice Roberts clone would still be a profound disappointment to Democrats, a Justice like that would be far more attractive to Democrats than a Justice Kavanaugh.
So, from the Democratic party's perspective, since no other nominee could be materially worse than Kavanaugh in their view, in a worse case scenario they postpone the addition of a bad new justice to the high court and deliver a defeat to the President, and in the best case scenario they also cause the addition of a less bad new justice to the high court.
Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable.
Realistically, not fighting the Kavanaugh nomination is the worst option available to the Democrats which provides them with no benefit whatsoever and would undermine their credibility as opponents of the regime and supporters of their principles. And, if they fail to strongly oppose his confirmation, they also set a precedent that would make it hard for Democrats to oppose future nominees who share similar personal or ideological flaws with Kavanaugh.
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 30 at 16:35
Apologies for coming to this late but I'm not sure I understand "Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable." Are you suggesting that undesirable candidates should be attacked with claims of sexual assault? If not, what are you suggesting?
â Philbo
19 hours ago
@Philbo I am suggesting that they might learn how to mobilize opposition to a scandal prone nominee, whatever those scandals or flaws might be.
â ohwilleke
7 hours ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
24
down vote
up vote
24
down vote
This should be obvious, but in addition to the other reasons stated, even if the Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate in the mid-term elections, if Democrats prevent Brett Kavanaugh from being appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court, then the seat will be filled by someone else nominated by President Trump instead.
Brett Kavanaugh is a very undesirable candidate for this life long post in terms of his history of judicial decision making, his background as a very partisan Republican operative, and his personal character. The personal character issues include:
- multiple accusations of sexual assault,
- a history of misogyny in how he chooses and treats his clerks,
- provable instances of lying under oath,
- problems with alcohol overuse, and
- problems with personal financial management.
- He has a history of being a bully and a jerk in his personal life and that could influence how he acts with a powerful lifetime appointment in subtle ways.
If Trump nominates a replacement candidate, that candidate would in all likelihood be better vetted and would be at least someone less obviously polarizing. Instead of a judge in the model of Justice Thomas, like Kavanaugh, Trump might nominate a judge more like Justice Roberts, for example. And, while a Justice Roberts clone would still be a profound disappointment to Democrats, a Justice like that would be far more attractive to Democrats than a Justice Kavanaugh.
So, from the Democratic party's perspective, since no other nominee could be materially worse than Kavanaugh in their view, in a worse case scenario they postpone the addition of a bad new justice to the high court and deliver a defeat to the President, and in the best case scenario they also cause the addition of a less bad new justice to the high court.
Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable.
Realistically, not fighting the Kavanaugh nomination is the worst option available to the Democrats which provides them with no benefit whatsoever and would undermine their credibility as opponents of the regime and supporters of their principles. And, if they fail to strongly oppose his confirmation, they also set a precedent that would make it hard for Democrats to oppose future nominees who share similar personal or ideological flaws with Kavanaugh.
This should be obvious, but in addition to the other reasons stated, even if the Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate in the mid-term elections, if Democrats prevent Brett Kavanaugh from being appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court, then the seat will be filled by someone else nominated by President Trump instead.
Brett Kavanaugh is a very undesirable candidate for this life long post in terms of his history of judicial decision making, his background as a very partisan Republican operative, and his personal character. The personal character issues include:
- multiple accusations of sexual assault,
- a history of misogyny in how he chooses and treats his clerks,
- provable instances of lying under oath,
- problems with alcohol overuse, and
- problems with personal financial management.
- He has a history of being a bully and a jerk in his personal life and that could influence how he acts with a powerful lifetime appointment in subtle ways.
If Trump nominates a replacement candidate, that candidate would in all likelihood be better vetted and would be at least someone less obviously polarizing. Instead of a judge in the model of Justice Thomas, like Kavanaugh, Trump might nominate a judge more like Justice Roberts, for example. And, while a Justice Roberts clone would still be a profound disappointment to Democrats, a Justice like that would be far more attractive to Democrats than a Justice Kavanaugh.
So, from the Democratic party's perspective, since no other nominee could be materially worse than Kavanaugh in their view, in a worse case scenario they postpone the addition of a bad new justice to the high court and deliver a defeat to the President, and in the best case scenario they also cause the addition of a less bad new justice to the high court.
Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable.
Realistically, not fighting the Kavanaugh nomination is the worst option available to the Democrats which provides them with no benefit whatsoever and would undermine their credibility as opponents of the regime and supporters of their principles. And, if they fail to strongly oppose his confirmation, they also set a precedent that would make it hard for Democrats to oppose future nominees who share similar personal or ideological flaws with Kavanaugh.
edited Sep 30 at 10:29
Paul Johnson
3,79321220
3,79321220
answered Sep 27 at 20:45
ohwilleke
18.9k34583
18.9k34583
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 30 at 16:35
Apologies for coming to this late but I'm not sure I understand "Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable." Are you suggesting that undesirable candidates should be attacked with claims of sexual assault? If not, what are you suggesting?
â Philbo
19 hours ago
@Philbo I am suggesting that they might learn how to mobilize opposition to a scandal prone nominee, whatever those scandals or flaws might be.
â ohwilleke
7 hours ago
add a comment |Â
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 30 at 16:35
Apologies for coming to this late but I'm not sure I understand "Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable." Are you suggesting that undesirable candidates should be attacked with claims of sexual assault? If not, what are you suggesting?
â Philbo
19 hours ago
@Philbo I am suggesting that they might learn how to mobilize opposition to a scandal prone nominee, whatever those scandals or flaws might be.
â ohwilleke
7 hours ago
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 30 at 16:35
Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 30 at 16:35
Apologies for coming to this late but I'm not sure I understand "Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable." Are you suggesting that undesirable candidates should be attacked with claims of sexual assault? If not, what are you suggesting?
â Philbo
19 hours ago
Apologies for coming to this late but I'm not sure I understand "Also, a success in defeating Justice Kavanaugh establishes a template that Democrats can follow in defeating future nominees to any kind of post who are particularly undesirable." Are you suggesting that undesirable candidates should be attacked with claims of sexual assault? If not, what are you suggesting?
â Philbo
19 hours ago
@Philbo I am suggesting that they might learn how to mobilize opposition to a scandal prone nominee, whatever those scandals or flaws might be.
â ohwilleke
7 hours ago
@Philbo I am suggesting that they might learn how to mobilize opposition to a scandal prone nominee, whatever those scandals or flaws might be.
â ohwilleke
7 hours ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
14
down vote
Victories are hard to come by for minority parties. By borking the nomination democrats "stand up" to Trump, which polls indicate most adults, if not likely voters want. There's the suburban women appeal of fighting an alleged abuser as well, and women are expected to be critical in the election.
The flip side is what do they have to lose by not blocking it? Base motivation, which is crucial for midterms. As such, it's a win-win for the democrats to obstruct, regardless of the outcome.
13
Perhaps add a link to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork#Bork_as_verb and/or an explanation, since readers may be unfamiliar with American politics from 30 years ago.
â shoover
Sep 27 at 20:45
2
Apparently they were able to find a third option yesterday of lose (as i win-win-lose). Suggest to update. See #WalkAway
â Physics-Compute
Sep 28 at 12:53
1
@Physics-Compute: I don't understand your point, can you please elaborate?
â dandavis
Sep 28 at 15:01
1
@shoover - Disagree. I think most people's usage of "bork" is not based on that, but on the Muppets' Swedish Chef, which predates that usage by 15+ years. See "bork bork bork".
â William - Rem
Sep 30 at 23:27
4
@William-Rem When used as a verb in the sense of thwarting a nomination to the Supreme Court, it is almost certainly a reference to Robert Bork.
â shoover
Oct 1 at 1:21
 |Â
show 6 more comments
up vote
14
down vote
Victories are hard to come by for minority parties. By borking the nomination democrats "stand up" to Trump, which polls indicate most adults, if not likely voters want. There's the suburban women appeal of fighting an alleged abuser as well, and women are expected to be critical in the election.
The flip side is what do they have to lose by not blocking it? Base motivation, which is crucial for midterms. As such, it's a win-win for the democrats to obstruct, regardless of the outcome.
13
Perhaps add a link to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork#Bork_as_verb and/or an explanation, since readers may be unfamiliar with American politics from 30 years ago.
â shoover
Sep 27 at 20:45
2
Apparently they were able to find a third option yesterday of lose (as i win-win-lose). Suggest to update. See #WalkAway
â Physics-Compute
Sep 28 at 12:53
1
@Physics-Compute: I don't understand your point, can you please elaborate?
â dandavis
Sep 28 at 15:01
1
@shoover - Disagree. I think most people's usage of "bork" is not based on that, but on the Muppets' Swedish Chef, which predates that usage by 15+ years. See "bork bork bork".
â William - Rem
Sep 30 at 23:27
4
@William-Rem When used as a verb in the sense of thwarting a nomination to the Supreme Court, it is almost certainly a reference to Robert Bork.
â shoover
Oct 1 at 1:21
 |Â
show 6 more comments
up vote
14
down vote
up vote
14
down vote
Victories are hard to come by for minority parties. By borking the nomination democrats "stand up" to Trump, which polls indicate most adults, if not likely voters want. There's the suburban women appeal of fighting an alleged abuser as well, and women are expected to be critical in the election.
The flip side is what do they have to lose by not blocking it? Base motivation, which is crucial for midterms. As such, it's a win-win for the democrats to obstruct, regardless of the outcome.
Victories are hard to come by for minority parties. By borking the nomination democrats "stand up" to Trump, which polls indicate most adults, if not likely voters want. There's the suburban women appeal of fighting an alleged abuser as well, and women are expected to be critical in the election.
The flip side is what do they have to lose by not blocking it? Base motivation, which is crucial for midterms. As such, it's a win-win for the democrats to obstruct, regardless of the outcome.
answered Sep 27 at 19:54
dandavis
3856
3856
13
Perhaps add a link to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork#Bork_as_verb and/or an explanation, since readers may be unfamiliar with American politics from 30 years ago.
â shoover
Sep 27 at 20:45
2
Apparently they were able to find a third option yesterday of lose (as i win-win-lose). Suggest to update. See #WalkAway
â Physics-Compute
Sep 28 at 12:53
1
@Physics-Compute: I don't understand your point, can you please elaborate?
â dandavis
Sep 28 at 15:01
1
@shoover - Disagree. I think most people's usage of "bork" is not based on that, but on the Muppets' Swedish Chef, which predates that usage by 15+ years. See "bork bork bork".
â William - Rem
Sep 30 at 23:27
4
@William-Rem When used as a verb in the sense of thwarting a nomination to the Supreme Court, it is almost certainly a reference to Robert Bork.
â shoover
Oct 1 at 1:21
 |Â
show 6 more comments
13
Perhaps add a link to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork#Bork_as_verb and/or an explanation, since readers may be unfamiliar with American politics from 30 years ago.
â shoover
Sep 27 at 20:45
2
Apparently they were able to find a third option yesterday of lose (as i win-win-lose). Suggest to update. See #WalkAway
â Physics-Compute
Sep 28 at 12:53
1
@Physics-Compute: I don't understand your point, can you please elaborate?
â dandavis
Sep 28 at 15:01
1
@shoover - Disagree. I think most people's usage of "bork" is not based on that, but on the Muppets' Swedish Chef, which predates that usage by 15+ years. See "bork bork bork".
â William - Rem
Sep 30 at 23:27
4
@William-Rem When used as a verb in the sense of thwarting a nomination to the Supreme Court, it is almost certainly a reference to Robert Bork.
â shoover
Oct 1 at 1:21
13
13
Perhaps add a link to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork#Bork_as_verb and/or an explanation, since readers may be unfamiliar with American politics from 30 years ago.
â shoover
Sep 27 at 20:45
Perhaps add a link to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork#Bork_as_verb and/or an explanation, since readers may be unfamiliar with American politics from 30 years ago.
â shoover
Sep 27 at 20:45
2
2
Apparently they were able to find a third option yesterday of lose (as i win-win-lose). Suggest to update. See #WalkAway
â Physics-Compute
Sep 28 at 12:53
Apparently they were able to find a third option yesterday of lose (as i win-win-lose). Suggest to update. See #WalkAway
â Physics-Compute
Sep 28 at 12:53
1
1
@Physics-Compute: I don't understand your point, can you please elaborate?
â dandavis
Sep 28 at 15:01
@Physics-Compute: I don't understand your point, can you please elaborate?
â dandavis
Sep 28 at 15:01
1
1
@shoover - Disagree. I think most people's usage of "bork" is not based on that, but on the Muppets' Swedish Chef, which predates that usage by 15+ years. See "bork bork bork".
â William - Rem
Sep 30 at 23:27
@shoover - Disagree. I think most people's usage of "bork" is not based on that, but on the Muppets' Swedish Chef, which predates that usage by 15+ years. See "bork bork bork".
â William - Rem
Sep 30 at 23:27
4
4
@William-Rem When used as a verb in the sense of thwarting a nomination to the Supreme Court, it is almost certainly a reference to Robert Bork.
â shoover
Oct 1 at 1:21
@William-Rem When used as a verb in the sense of thwarting a nomination to the Supreme Court, it is almost certainly a reference to Robert Bork.
â shoover
Oct 1 at 1:21
 |Â
show 6 more comments
up vote
14
down vote
Beside the (still relatively remote) hope to delay the process long enough for the next Senate to decide on it, there could be some benefits in forcing Republicans to take a stance on the Kavanaugh nomination and the accusations against him, a few months before elections. It might provide video clips to build ads, allow their opponents to pain them as insensitive to sexual assault victims or women in general, as hypocrites, etc.
1
correct, the sole reason is to delay ANY nominee until after they control the senate and can just block whomever Trump puts forward by their controlling number of votes.
â jwenting
Oct 2 at 5:16
@jwenting That's not what I am saying. Also, delaying this nominee until the Democrat control the senate (if they ever do) could also be a way to force Trump to name a slightly less partisan candidate, not necessarily to keep the seat open for two years (that's more in the Republicans' playbook...).
â Relaxed
2 days ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
14
down vote
Beside the (still relatively remote) hope to delay the process long enough for the next Senate to decide on it, there could be some benefits in forcing Republicans to take a stance on the Kavanaugh nomination and the accusations against him, a few months before elections. It might provide video clips to build ads, allow their opponents to pain them as insensitive to sexual assault victims or women in general, as hypocrites, etc.
1
correct, the sole reason is to delay ANY nominee until after they control the senate and can just block whomever Trump puts forward by their controlling number of votes.
â jwenting
Oct 2 at 5:16
@jwenting That's not what I am saying. Also, delaying this nominee until the Democrat control the senate (if they ever do) could also be a way to force Trump to name a slightly less partisan candidate, not necessarily to keep the seat open for two years (that's more in the Republicans' playbook...).
â Relaxed
2 days ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
14
down vote
up vote
14
down vote
Beside the (still relatively remote) hope to delay the process long enough for the next Senate to decide on it, there could be some benefits in forcing Republicans to take a stance on the Kavanaugh nomination and the accusations against him, a few months before elections. It might provide video clips to build ads, allow their opponents to pain them as insensitive to sexual assault victims or women in general, as hypocrites, etc.
Beside the (still relatively remote) hope to delay the process long enough for the next Senate to decide on it, there could be some benefits in forcing Republicans to take a stance on the Kavanaugh nomination and the accusations against him, a few months before elections. It might provide video clips to build ads, allow their opponents to pain them as insensitive to sexual assault victims or women in general, as hypocrites, etc.
edited Sep 27 at 21:16
answered Sep 27 at 19:12
Relaxed
15.9k3455
15.9k3455
1
correct, the sole reason is to delay ANY nominee until after they control the senate and can just block whomever Trump puts forward by their controlling number of votes.
â jwenting
Oct 2 at 5:16
@jwenting That's not what I am saying. Also, delaying this nominee until the Democrat control the senate (if they ever do) could also be a way to force Trump to name a slightly less partisan candidate, not necessarily to keep the seat open for two years (that's more in the Republicans' playbook...).
â Relaxed
2 days ago
add a comment |Â
1
correct, the sole reason is to delay ANY nominee until after they control the senate and can just block whomever Trump puts forward by their controlling number of votes.
â jwenting
Oct 2 at 5:16
@jwenting That's not what I am saying. Also, delaying this nominee until the Democrat control the senate (if they ever do) could also be a way to force Trump to name a slightly less partisan candidate, not necessarily to keep the seat open for two years (that's more in the Republicans' playbook...).
â Relaxed
2 days ago
1
1
correct, the sole reason is to delay ANY nominee until after they control the senate and can just block whomever Trump puts forward by their controlling number of votes.
â jwenting
Oct 2 at 5:16
correct, the sole reason is to delay ANY nominee until after they control the senate and can just block whomever Trump puts forward by their controlling number of votes.
â jwenting
Oct 2 at 5:16
@jwenting That's not what I am saying. Also, delaying this nominee until the Democrat control the senate (if they ever do) could also be a way to force Trump to name a slightly less partisan candidate, not necessarily to keep the seat open for two years (that's more in the Republicans' playbook...).
â Relaxed
2 days ago
@jwenting That's not what I am saying. Also, delaying this nominee until the Democrat control the senate (if they ever do) could also be a way to force Trump to name a slightly less partisan candidate, not necessarily to keep the seat open for two years (that's more in the Republicans' playbook...).
â Relaxed
2 days ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
8
down vote
Political benefits and moral benefits are often one and the same. Preventing someone accused of sexual assault from being confirmed to the Supreme Court without a thorough investigation is itself a political gain.
Because of this moral benefit, the optics of this situation favor the party that opposes confirming someone accused of such crimes without a full review.
I think this answer is directly related to a recent politics.SE question about hypocrisy: politics.stackexchange.com/q/34010/10172
â BurnsBA
Sep 28 at 15:23
3
It's dubious whether it's a moral benefit (or even a long term political benefit) to establish a precedent that a nomination can be blocked by an accusation lacking evidence or arguably even credibility. But this still answers the question, because it does provide a short term political benefit.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:31
add a comment |Â
up vote
8
down vote
Political benefits and moral benefits are often one and the same. Preventing someone accused of sexual assault from being confirmed to the Supreme Court without a thorough investigation is itself a political gain.
Because of this moral benefit, the optics of this situation favor the party that opposes confirming someone accused of such crimes without a full review.
I think this answer is directly related to a recent politics.SE question about hypocrisy: politics.stackexchange.com/q/34010/10172
â BurnsBA
Sep 28 at 15:23
3
It's dubious whether it's a moral benefit (or even a long term political benefit) to establish a precedent that a nomination can be blocked by an accusation lacking evidence or arguably even credibility. But this still answers the question, because it does provide a short term political benefit.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:31
add a comment |Â
up vote
8
down vote
up vote
8
down vote
Political benefits and moral benefits are often one and the same. Preventing someone accused of sexual assault from being confirmed to the Supreme Court without a thorough investigation is itself a political gain.
Because of this moral benefit, the optics of this situation favor the party that opposes confirming someone accused of such crimes without a full review.
Political benefits and moral benefits are often one and the same. Preventing someone accused of sexual assault from being confirmed to the Supreme Court without a thorough investigation is itself a political gain.
Because of this moral benefit, the optics of this situation favor the party that opposes confirming someone accused of such crimes without a full review.
answered Sep 28 at 0:28
AquaticFire
1,244139
1,244139
I think this answer is directly related to a recent politics.SE question about hypocrisy: politics.stackexchange.com/q/34010/10172
â BurnsBA
Sep 28 at 15:23
3
It's dubious whether it's a moral benefit (or even a long term political benefit) to establish a precedent that a nomination can be blocked by an accusation lacking evidence or arguably even credibility. But this still answers the question, because it does provide a short term political benefit.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:31
add a comment |Â
I think this answer is directly related to a recent politics.SE question about hypocrisy: politics.stackexchange.com/q/34010/10172
â BurnsBA
Sep 28 at 15:23
3
It's dubious whether it's a moral benefit (or even a long term political benefit) to establish a precedent that a nomination can be blocked by an accusation lacking evidence or arguably even credibility. But this still answers the question, because it does provide a short term political benefit.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:31
I think this answer is directly related to a recent politics.SE question about hypocrisy: politics.stackexchange.com/q/34010/10172
â BurnsBA
Sep 28 at 15:23
I think this answer is directly related to a recent politics.SE question about hypocrisy: politics.stackexchange.com/q/34010/10172
â BurnsBA
Sep 28 at 15:23
3
3
It's dubious whether it's a moral benefit (or even a long term political benefit) to establish a precedent that a nomination can be blocked by an accusation lacking evidence or arguably even credibility. But this still answers the question, because it does provide a short term political benefit.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:31
It's dubious whether it's a moral benefit (or even a long term political benefit) to establish a precedent that a nomination can be blocked by an accusation lacking evidence or arguably even credibility. But this still answers the question, because it does provide a short term political benefit.
â TKK
Oct 1 at 19:31
add a comment |Â
up vote
7
down vote
Currently the Republicans have control of two of the branches of government (Executive and Legislative). If they pack the Supreme Court with partisan judges then they undermine the fundamental balance of power and the system of checks and balances.
For example, suppose Congress makes an undemocratic (IE: tyrannical) law such as making Trump President for life and the Supreme court has a majority of right wing partisans. There will be and can be no challenge.
In fact, Kavanaugh has already gone on record that the President should not be accountable to law (IE: he should be un-indictable) "so that he can concentrate on running the country". So if the court is packed with such judges the Republicans will be free to rig everything so that no one will ever be able to unseat their party, resist their tax manipulation to the benefit of plutocrats, etc.
Basically our entire democracy (if you can call it that, with the Electoral College, gerrymandering and Russian interference) is on the line. The democrats have everything to lose - their very raison d'etre.
1
Well some manipulation such as gerrymandering would be (still) on the cards. I imagine that for something as extreme as appointing a president for life would be challenged by the pre-existing right wing partisians.
â gmatht
Sep 28 at 2:55
2
Except that having all three branches under the control of one party has already happened without significant consequences (FDR's rule is one example).
â JonathanReez
Sep 30 at 4:59
2
@JonathanReez Eh no. FDR led the country through the greatest destruction of the limitations on Federal Power. FDR's threats to the Supreme Court created decisions that empowered the Federal Government beyond the limits of enumerated powers in the Constitution, to include the creation of the General Welfare clause.
â Drunk Cynic
Sep 30 at 13:43
1
@JonathanReez Whether one likes him or hates him, it's quite a stretch to say that there were no "significant consequences" to FDR having the Congress and (through infamous threats of effectively taking over the judicial branch) the courts during his tenure. That was probably the single most significant period in American politics of the entire 20th century, leading to the creation of the welfare state and dramatic increase in the size and power of the government.
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:42
1
@reirab yeah but democracy is alive and well in the US. And the United States went on to become the world's most powerful country during FDRs rule.
â JonathanReez
Oct 2 at 7:31
 |Â
show 3 more comments
up vote
7
down vote
Currently the Republicans have control of two of the branches of government (Executive and Legislative). If they pack the Supreme Court with partisan judges then they undermine the fundamental balance of power and the system of checks and balances.
For example, suppose Congress makes an undemocratic (IE: tyrannical) law such as making Trump President for life and the Supreme court has a majority of right wing partisans. There will be and can be no challenge.
In fact, Kavanaugh has already gone on record that the President should not be accountable to law (IE: he should be un-indictable) "so that he can concentrate on running the country". So if the court is packed with such judges the Republicans will be free to rig everything so that no one will ever be able to unseat their party, resist their tax manipulation to the benefit of plutocrats, etc.
Basically our entire democracy (if you can call it that, with the Electoral College, gerrymandering and Russian interference) is on the line. The democrats have everything to lose - their very raison d'etre.
1
Well some manipulation such as gerrymandering would be (still) on the cards. I imagine that for something as extreme as appointing a president for life would be challenged by the pre-existing right wing partisians.
â gmatht
Sep 28 at 2:55
2
Except that having all three branches under the control of one party has already happened without significant consequences (FDR's rule is one example).
â JonathanReez
Sep 30 at 4:59
2
@JonathanReez Eh no. FDR led the country through the greatest destruction of the limitations on Federal Power. FDR's threats to the Supreme Court created decisions that empowered the Federal Government beyond the limits of enumerated powers in the Constitution, to include the creation of the General Welfare clause.
â Drunk Cynic
Sep 30 at 13:43
1
@JonathanReez Whether one likes him or hates him, it's quite a stretch to say that there were no "significant consequences" to FDR having the Congress and (through infamous threats of effectively taking over the judicial branch) the courts during his tenure. That was probably the single most significant period in American politics of the entire 20th century, leading to the creation of the welfare state and dramatic increase in the size and power of the government.
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:42
1
@reirab yeah but democracy is alive and well in the US. And the United States went on to become the world's most powerful country during FDRs rule.
â JonathanReez
Oct 2 at 7:31
 |Â
show 3 more comments
up vote
7
down vote
up vote
7
down vote
Currently the Republicans have control of two of the branches of government (Executive and Legislative). If they pack the Supreme Court with partisan judges then they undermine the fundamental balance of power and the system of checks and balances.
For example, suppose Congress makes an undemocratic (IE: tyrannical) law such as making Trump President for life and the Supreme court has a majority of right wing partisans. There will be and can be no challenge.
In fact, Kavanaugh has already gone on record that the President should not be accountable to law (IE: he should be un-indictable) "so that he can concentrate on running the country". So if the court is packed with such judges the Republicans will be free to rig everything so that no one will ever be able to unseat their party, resist their tax manipulation to the benefit of plutocrats, etc.
Basically our entire democracy (if you can call it that, with the Electoral College, gerrymandering and Russian interference) is on the line. The democrats have everything to lose - their very raison d'etre.
Currently the Republicans have control of two of the branches of government (Executive and Legislative). If they pack the Supreme Court with partisan judges then they undermine the fundamental balance of power and the system of checks and balances.
For example, suppose Congress makes an undemocratic (IE: tyrannical) law such as making Trump President for life and the Supreme court has a majority of right wing partisans. There will be and can be no challenge.
In fact, Kavanaugh has already gone on record that the President should not be accountable to law (IE: he should be un-indictable) "so that he can concentrate on running the country". So if the court is packed with such judges the Republicans will be free to rig everything so that no one will ever be able to unseat their party, resist their tax manipulation to the benefit of plutocrats, etc.
Basically our entire democracy (if you can call it that, with the Electoral College, gerrymandering and Russian interference) is on the line. The democrats have everything to lose - their very raison d'etre.
answered Sep 28 at 0:53
Ruminator
35816
35816
1
Well some manipulation such as gerrymandering would be (still) on the cards. I imagine that for something as extreme as appointing a president for life would be challenged by the pre-existing right wing partisians.
â gmatht
Sep 28 at 2:55
2
Except that having all three branches under the control of one party has already happened without significant consequences (FDR's rule is one example).
â JonathanReez
Sep 30 at 4:59
2
@JonathanReez Eh no. FDR led the country through the greatest destruction of the limitations on Federal Power. FDR's threats to the Supreme Court created decisions that empowered the Federal Government beyond the limits of enumerated powers in the Constitution, to include the creation of the General Welfare clause.
â Drunk Cynic
Sep 30 at 13:43
1
@JonathanReez Whether one likes him or hates him, it's quite a stretch to say that there were no "significant consequences" to FDR having the Congress and (through infamous threats of effectively taking over the judicial branch) the courts during his tenure. That was probably the single most significant period in American politics of the entire 20th century, leading to the creation of the welfare state and dramatic increase in the size and power of the government.
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:42
1
@reirab yeah but democracy is alive and well in the US. And the United States went on to become the world's most powerful country during FDRs rule.
â JonathanReez
Oct 2 at 7:31
 |Â
show 3 more comments
1
Well some manipulation such as gerrymandering would be (still) on the cards. I imagine that for something as extreme as appointing a president for life would be challenged by the pre-existing right wing partisians.
â gmatht
Sep 28 at 2:55
2
Except that having all three branches under the control of one party has already happened without significant consequences (FDR's rule is one example).
â JonathanReez
Sep 30 at 4:59
2
@JonathanReez Eh no. FDR led the country through the greatest destruction of the limitations on Federal Power. FDR's threats to the Supreme Court created decisions that empowered the Federal Government beyond the limits of enumerated powers in the Constitution, to include the creation of the General Welfare clause.
â Drunk Cynic
Sep 30 at 13:43
1
@JonathanReez Whether one likes him or hates him, it's quite a stretch to say that there were no "significant consequences" to FDR having the Congress and (through infamous threats of effectively taking over the judicial branch) the courts during his tenure. That was probably the single most significant period in American politics of the entire 20th century, leading to the creation of the welfare state and dramatic increase in the size and power of the government.
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:42
1
@reirab yeah but democracy is alive and well in the US. And the United States went on to become the world's most powerful country during FDRs rule.
â JonathanReez
Oct 2 at 7:31
1
1
Well some manipulation such as gerrymandering would be (still) on the cards. I imagine that for something as extreme as appointing a president for life would be challenged by the pre-existing right wing partisians.
â gmatht
Sep 28 at 2:55
Well some manipulation such as gerrymandering would be (still) on the cards. I imagine that for something as extreme as appointing a president for life would be challenged by the pre-existing right wing partisians.
â gmatht
Sep 28 at 2:55
2
2
Except that having all three branches under the control of one party has already happened without significant consequences (FDR's rule is one example).
â JonathanReez
Sep 30 at 4:59
Except that having all three branches under the control of one party has already happened without significant consequences (FDR's rule is one example).
â JonathanReez
Sep 30 at 4:59
2
2
@JonathanReez Eh no. FDR led the country through the greatest destruction of the limitations on Federal Power. FDR's threats to the Supreme Court created decisions that empowered the Federal Government beyond the limits of enumerated powers in the Constitution, to include the creation of the General Welfare clause.
â Drunk Cynic
Sep 30 at 13:43
@JonathanReez Eh no. FDR led the country through the greatest destruction of the limitations on Federal Power. FDR's threats to the Supreme Court created decisions that empowered the Federal Government beyond the limits of enumerated powers in the Constitution, to include the creation of the General Welfare clause.
â Drunk Cynic
Sep 30 at 13:43
1
1
@JonathanReez Whether one likes him or hates him, it's quite a stretch to say that there were no "significant consequences" to FDR having the Congress and (through infamous threats of effectively taking over the judicial branch) the courts during his tenure. That was probably the single most significant period in American politics of the entire 20th century, leading to the creation of the welfare state and dramatic increase in the size and power of the government.
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:42
@JonathanReez Whether one likes him or hates him, it's quite a stretch to say that there were no "significant consequences" to FDR having the Congress and (through infamous threats of effectively taking over the judicial branch) the courts during his tenure. That was probably the single most significant period in American politics of the entire 20th century, leading to the creation of the welfare state and dramatic increase in the size and power of the government.
â reirab
Oct 1 at 20:42
1
1
@reirab yeah but democracy is alive and well in the US. And the United States went on to become the world's most powerful country during FDRs rule.
â JonathanReez
Oct 2 at 7:31
@reirab yeah but democracy is alive and well in the US. And the United States went on to become the world's most powerful country during FDRs rule.
â JonathanReez
Oct 2 at 7:31
 |Â
show 3 more comments
up vote
4
down vote
There's a variety of political benefits, it's difficult to actually list them exhaustively:
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose judges with Kavanaugh's ideology, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions.
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose nominees who are guilty of sexual harassment/assault, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions. The treatment of political actors by their own party in such cases (when those people decide to "tough things out") is a form of branding. Moore and Franken are two recent examples that contrast with each other.
- Delay of a confirmation allows the situation to change, the senate may flip after the election for example.
- Successful withdrawal of the nomination is a political win and will energize the base while depressing turnout for the Republicans. This is the common wisdom at least, and can mirror what happened with the attempted ACA repeal.
- Dragging out the process is helpful in energizing the base this close to an election, Kavanaugh is a historically unpopular nominee, keeping him in the news is good for the party as a whole.
- Other potential nominees can be marginal or even significant improvements over Kavanaugh in a variety of ways. For example there were rumors that Trump wanted to nominate his own sister, who actually seems to quite moderate ideologically as a judge (compared to federalist society clones), and is quite old compared to Kavanaugh.
- Other possible nominees can have their own weaknesses, allowing them to potentially be defeated in turn or forcing the Republicans into more moderate choices. For example, Barret is in a sect of Christianity where her title in church is literally "handmaiden" and her views on abortion are well known, Senator Collins would be incapable of pretending that she thinks Roe v. Wade is "settled law".
- "Borking" Kavanaugh is very fitting since their disqualification (prior to the multiple sexual assault allegations) is that they were first highly partisan political operatives. Democrats would be insane to not oppose someone who is their self-admitted political foe. An enemy ideologue leads to unwanted policy outcomes, which can still serve to lead to political power. A powerful partisan enemy will always lead to the worst political outcome. Both parties can draw political power from Roe v. Wade for example, but it would be hard to find one Democrat who thinks Bush v. Gore lead to a good political outcome.
7
You've made several good points here, but I would caution against using the term "guilty" for someone who has not been charged and convicted. Whatever you or I think of Kavanaugh, a confirmation is not a trial.
â Jon of All Trades
Oct 1 at 16:08
add a comment |Â
up vote
4
down vote
There's a variety of political benefits, it's difficult to actually list them exhaustively:
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose judges with Kavanaugh's ideology, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions.
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose nominees who are guilty of sexual harassment/assault, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions. The treatment of political actors by their own party in such cases (when those people decide to "tough things out") is a form of branding. Moore and Franken are two recent examples that contrast with each other.
- Delay of a confirmation allows the situation to change, the senate may flip after the election for example.
- Successful withdrawal of the nomination is a political win and will energize the base while depressing turnout for the Republicans. This is the common wisdom at least, and can mirror what happened with the attempted ACA repeal.
- Dragging out the process is helpful in energizing the base this close to an election, Kavanaugh is a historically unpopular nominee, keeping him in the news is good for the party as a whole.
- Other potential nominees can be marginal or even significant improvements over Kavanaugh in a variety of ways. For example there were rumors that Trump wanted to nominate his own sister, who actually seems to quite moderate ideologically as a judge (compared to federalist society clones), and is quite old compared to Kavanaugh.
- Other possible nominees can have their own weaknesses, allowing them to potentially be defeated in turn or forcing the Republicans into more moderate choices. For example, Barret is in a sect of Christianity where her title in church is literally "handmaiden" and her views on abortion are well known, Senator Collins would be incapable of pretending that she thinks Roe v. Wade is "settled law".
- "Borking" Kavanaugh is very fitting since their disqualification (prior to the multiple sexual assault allegations) is that they were first highly partisan political operatives. Democrats would be insane to not oppose someone who is their self-admitted political foe. An enemy ideologue leads to unwanted policy outcomes, which can still serve to lead to political power. A powerful partisan enemy will always lead to the worst political outcome. Both parties can draw political power from Roe v. Wade for example, but it would be hard to find one Democrat who thinks Bush v. Gore lead to a good political outcome.
7
You've made several good points here, but I would caution against using the term "guilty" for someone who has not been charged and convicted. Whatever you or I think of Kavanaugh, a confirmation is not a trial.
â Jon of All Trades
Oct 1 at 16:08
add a comment |Â
up vote
4
down vote
up vote
4
down vote
There's a variety of political benefits, it's difficult to actually list them exhaustively:
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose judges with Kavanaugh's ideology, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions.
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose nominees who are guilty of sexual harassment/assault, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions. The treatment of political actors by their own party in such cases (when those people decide to "tough things out") is a form of branding. Moore and Franken are two recent examples that contrast with each other.
- Delay of a confirmation allows the situation to change, the senate may flip after the election for example.
- Successful withdrawal of the nomination is a political win and will energize the base while depressing turnout for the Republicans. This is the common wisdom at least, and can mirror what happened with the attempted ACA repeal.
- Dragging out the process is helpful in energizing the base this close to an election, Kavanaugh is a historically unpopular nominee, keeping him in the news is good for the party as a whole.
- Other potential nominees can be marginal or even significant improvements over Kavanaugh in a variety of ways. For example there were rumors that Trump wanted to nominate his own sister, who actually seems to quite moderate ideologically as a judge (compared to federalist society clones), and is quite old compared to Kavanaugh.
- Other possible nominees can have their own weaknesses, allowing them to potentially be defeated in turn or forcing the Republicans into more moderate choices. For example, Barret is in a sect of Christianity where her title in church is literally "handmaiden" and her views on abortion are well known, Senator Collins would be incapable of pretending that she thinks Roe v. Wade is "settled law".
- "Borking" Kavanaugh is very fitting since their disqualification (prior to the multiple sexual assault allegations) is that they were first highly partisan political operatives. Democrats would be insane to not oppose someone who is their self-admitted political foe. An enemy ideologue leads to unwanted policy outcomes, which can still serve to lead to political power. A powerful partisan enemy will always lead to the worst political outcome. Both parties can draw political power from Roe v. Wade for example, but it would be hard to find one Democrat who thinks Bush v. Gore lead to a good political outcome.
There's a variety of political benefits, it's difficult to actually list them exhaustively:
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose judges with Kavanaugh's ideology, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions.
- It's the expected course of action for the party to oppose nominees who are guilty of sexual harassment/assault, so the base will reward/punish senators for their actions. The treatment of political actors by their own party in such cases (when those people decide to "tough things out") is a form of branding. Moore and Franken are two recent examples that contrast with each other.
- Delay of a confirmation allows the situation to change, the senate may flip after the election for example.
- Successful withdrawal of the nomination is a political win and will energize the base while depressing turnout for the Republicans. This is the common wisdom at least, and can mirror what happened with the attempted ACA repeal.
- Dragging out the process is helpful in energizing the base this close to an election, Kavanaugh is a historically unpopular nominee, keeping him in the news is good for the party as a whole.
- Other potential nominees can be marginal or even significant improvements over Kavanaugh in a variety of ways. For example there were rumors that Trump wanted to nominate his own sister, who actually seems to quite moderate ideologically as a judge (compared to federalist society clones), and is quite old compared to Kavanaugh.
- Other possible nominees can have their own weaknesses, allowing them to potentially be defeated in turn or forcing the Republicans into more moderate choices. For example, Barret is in a sect of Christianity where her title in church is literally "handmaiden" and her views on abortion are well known, Senator Collins would be incapable of pretending that she thinks Roe v. Wade is "settled law".
- "Borking" Kavanaugh is very fitting since their disqualification (prior to the multiple sexual assault allegations) is that they were first highly partisan political operatives. Democrats would be insane to not oppose someone who is their self-admitted political foe. An enemy ideologue leads to unwanted policy outcomes, which can still serve to lead to political power. A powerful partisan enemy will always lead to the worst political outcome. Both parties can draw political power from Roe v. Wade for example, but it would be hard to find one Democrat who thinks Bush v. Gore lead to a good political outcome.
answered Sep 30 at 9:11
Teleka
2,279520
2,279520
7
You've made several good points here, but I would caution against using the term "guilty" for someone who has not been charged and convicted. Whatever you or I think of Kavanaugh, a confirmation is not a trial.
â Jon of All Trades
Oct 1 at 16:08
add a comment |Â
7
You've made several good points here, but I would caution against using the term "guilty" for someone who has not been charged and convicted. Whatever you or I think of Kavanaugh, a confirmation is not a trial.
â Jon of All Trades
Oct 1 at 16:08
7
7
You've made several good points here, but I would caution against using the term "guilty" for someone who has not been charged and convicted. Whatever you or I think of Kavanaugh, a confirmation is not a trial.
â Jon of All Trades
Oct 1 at 16:08
You've made several good points here, but I would caution against using the term "guilty" for someone who has not been charged and convicted. Whatever you or I think of Kavanaugh, a confirmation is not a trial.
â Jon of All Trades
Oct 1 at 16:08
add a comment |Â
up vote
3
down vote
The Democrats have vowed to not allow ANY nominee put forward by President Trump to be confirmed.
At the moment the only way they can do that is through the interminable smear campaigns we've seen waged against Justice Kavanaugh.
Until a few years ago, when the fillibuster was removed as an option by the (then) democrat senate because they didn't want the Republicans to use it against them, that was their chosen tactic as it didn't make them look half as bad in the public eye.
Their hope is that if they can delay the confirmation vote until after the midterm elections in November, they will have a majority in the senate and use that to just vote any nominee whatsoever into rejection, thus making it impossible for the President to appoint any justices (or indeed anyone in any position requiring a senate vote) at all until the 2020 presidential elections.
That's the game, and they'll use whatever tactics they need to play it. This is not about Kavanaugh or Ford, Kavanaugh is an unfortunate victim and Ford a tool in their arsenal.
This isn't about right or wrong, they couldn't care less whether Kavanaugh did what Ford claimed he did (which may or may not have any credibility, that too is irrelevant to them).
All that matters to them is that this circus delays the confirmation vote, and they'll milk it until the vote has been lifted over the midterms.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next scripted "accusations" are already sitting in some democrat senator's file folder, ready to be "revealed" the moment the FBI says there's nothing to prevent a confirmation vote, thus delaying things even further.
add a comment |Â
up vote
3
down vote
The Democrats have vowed to not allow ANY nominee put forward by President Trump to be confirmed.
At the moment the only way they can do that is through the interminable smear campaigns we've seen waged against Justice Kavanaugh.
Until a few years ago, when the fillibuster was removed as an option by the (then) democrat senate because they didn't want the Republicans to use it against them, that was their chosen tactic as it didn't make them look half as bad in the public eye.
Their hope is that if they can delay the confirmation vote until after the midterm elections in November, they will have a majority in the senate and use that to just vote any nominee whatsoever into rejection, thus making it impossible for the President to appoint any justices (or indeed anyone in any position requiring a senate vote) at all until the 2020 presidential elections.
That's the game, and they'll use whatever tactics they need to play it. This is not about Kavanaugh or Ford, Kavanaugh is an unfortunate victim and Ford a tool in their arsenal.
This isn't about right or wrong, they couldn't care less whether Kavanaugh did what Ford claimed he did (which may or may not have any credibility, that too is irrelevant to them).
All that matters to them is that this circus delays the confirmation vote, and they'll milk it until the vote has been lifted over the midterms.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next scripted "accusations" are already sitting in some democrat senator's file folder, ready to be "revealed" the moment the FBI says there's nothing to prevent a confirmation vote, thus delaying things even further.
add a comment |Â
up vote
3
down vote
up vote
3
down vote
The Democrats have vowed to not allow ANY nominee put forward by President Trump to be confirmed.
At the moment the only way they can do that is through the interminable smear campaigns we've seen waged against Justice Kavanaugh.
Until a few years ago, when the fillibuster was removed as an option by the (then) democrat senate because they didn't want the Republicans to use it against them, that was their chosen tactic as it didn't make them look half as bad in the public eye.
Their hope is that if they can delay the confirmation vote until after the midterm elections in November, they will have a majority in the senate and use that to just vote any nominee whatsoever into rejection, thus making it impossible for the President to appoint any justices (or indeed anyone in any position requiring a senate vote) at all until the 2020 presidential elections.
That's the game, and they'll use whatever tactics they need to play it. This is not about Kavanaugh or Ford, Kavanaugh is an unfortunate victim and Ford a tool in their arsenal.
This isn't about right or wrong, they couldn't care less whether Kavanaugh did what Ford claimed he did (which may or may not have any credibility, that too is irrelevant to them).
All that matters to them is that this circus delays the confirmation vote, and they'll milk it until the vote has been lifted over the midterms.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next scripted "accusations" are already sitting in some democrat senator's file folder, ready to be "revealed" the moment the FBI says there's nothing to prevent a confirmation vote, thus delaying things even further.
The Democrats have vowed to not allow ANY nominee put forward by President Trump to be confirmed.
At the moment the only way they can do that is through the interminable smear campaigns we've seen waged against Justice Kavanaugh.
Until a few years ago, when the fillibuster was removed as an option by the (then) democrat senate because they didn't want the Republicans to use it against them, that was their chosen tactic as it didn't make them look half as bad in the public eye.
Their hope is that if they can delay the confirmation vote until after the midterm elections in November, they will have a majority in the senate and use that to just vote any nominee whatsoever into rejection, thus making it impossible for the President to appoint any justices (or indeed anyone in any position requiring a senate vote) at all until the 2020 presidential elections.
That's the game, and they'll use whatever tactics they need to play it. This is not about Kavanaugh or Ford, Kavanaugh is an unfortunate victim and Ford a tool in their arsenal.
This isn't about right or wrong, they couldn't care less whether Kavanaugh did what Ford claimed he did (which may or may not have any credibility, that too is irrelevant to them).
All that matters to them is that this circus delays the confirmation vote, and they'll milk it until the vote has been lifted over the midterms.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next scripted "accusations" are already sitting in some democrat senator's file folder, ready to be "revealed" the moment the FBI says there's nothing to prevent a confirmation vote, thus delaying things even further.
answered Oct 2 at 5:23
jwenting
40323
40323
add a comment |Â
add a comment |Â
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â Sam I amâ¦
Sep 28 at 5:34
32
Consider the converse: What do Republicans have to gain by continuing to argue for Kavanaugh instead of rejecting him and moving to the next option on the list?
â Walt
Sep 28 at 17:47
Two questions asked, which question is the focus? Please clarify.
â BobE
Sep 28 at 20:10
2
@Walt If Republicans backed down immediately to accusations like this, that tendency to back down could theoretically be gamed by the Democrats.
â Sam I amâ¦
2 days ago