Prove that the estimators are biased.

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3












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Given the following sentences:



Let $X_1,..., X_n$ be a random sample from a $Pois(mu)$ distribution. Consider the following estimator for $e^-mu=P(X_i=0)$: $T=e^-overlineX_n$.



The independent random variables $X_1;...;X_n$ have a geometric distribution with parameter $p$. Look at the following estimator for $p$: $S=frac1overlineX_n$.



Prove that the estimators are biased.




In my opinion both estimators are unbiased:
$E[T]=e^E[overlineX_n]=e^-mu$ that is unbiased for the parameter $e^-mu$.
$E[S]=frac1E[overlineX_n]=frac11/p=p$ that is unbiased for the parameter $p$.

Why I'm wrong in both cases? Where are my mistakes? Thanks.










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  • 3




    $begingroup$
    Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
    $endgroup$
    – Did
    Jan 13 at 17:34







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
    $endgroup$
    – StubbornAtom
    Jan 13 at 17:50










  • $begingroup$
    You are right, thanks! :)
    $endgroup$
    – FTAC
    Jan 13 at 20:27










  • $begingroup$
    This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
    $endgroup$
    – Did
    Jan 13 at 20:33















3












$begingroup$



Given the following sentences:



Let $X_1,..., X_n$ be a random sample from a $Pois(mu)$ distribution. Consider the following estimator for $e^-mu=P(X_i=0)$: $T=e^-overlineX_n$.



The independent random variables $X_1;...;X_n$ have a geometric distribution with parameter $p$. Look at the following estimator for $p$: $S=frac1overlineX_n$.



Prove that the estimators are biased.




In my opinion both estimators are unbiased:
$E[T]=e^E[overlineX_n]=e^-mu$ that is unbiased for the parameter $e^-mu$.
$E[S]=frac1E[overlineX_n]=frac11/p=p$ that is unbiased for the parameter $p$.

Why I'm wrong in both cases? Where are my mistakes? Thanks.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$







  • 3




    $begingroup$
    Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
    $endgroup$
    – Did
    Jan 13 at 17:34







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
    $endgroup$
    – StubbornAtom
    Jan 13 at 17:50










  • $begingroup$
    You are right, thanks! :)
    $endgroup$
    – FTAC
    Jan 13 at 20:27










  • $begingroup$
    This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
    $endgroup$
    – Did
    Jan 13 at 20:33













3












3








3


1



$begingroup$



Given the following sentences:



Let $X_1,..., X_n$ be a random sample from a $Pois(mu)$ distribution. Consider the following estimator for $e^-mu=P(X_i=0)$: $T=e^-overlineX_n$.



The independent random variables $X_1;...;X_n$ have a geometric distribution with parameter $p$. Look at the following estimator for $p$: $S=frac1overlineX_n$.



Prove that the estimators are biased.




In my opinion both estimators are unbiased:
$E[T]=e^E[overlineX_n]=e^-mu$ that is unbiased for the parameter $e^-mu$.
$E[S]=frac1E[overlineX_n]=frac11/p=p$ that is unbiased for the parameter $p$.

Why I'm wrong in both cases? Where are my mistakes? Thanks.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$





Given the following sentences:



Let $X_1,..., X_n$ be a random sample from a $Pois(mu)$ distribution. Consider the following estimator for $e^-mu=P(X_i=0)$: $T=e^-overlineX_n$.



The independent random variables $X_1;...;X_n$ have a geometric distribution with parameter $p$. Look at the following estimator for $p$: $S=frac1overlineX_n$.



Prove that the estimators are biased.




In my opinion both estimators are unbiased:
$E[T]=e^E[overlineX_n]=e^-mu$ that is unbiased for the parameter $e^-mu$.
$E[S]=frac1E[overlineX_n]=frac11/p=p$ that is unbiased for the parameter $p$.

Why I'm wrong in both cases? Where are my mistakes? Thanks.







statistics






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share|cite|improve this question








edited Jan 13 at 20:30







FTAC

















asked Jan 13 at 17:01









FTACFTAC

2719




2719







  • 3




    $begingroup$
    Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
    $endgroup$
    – Did
    Jan 13 at 17:34







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
    $endgroup$
    – StubbornAtom
    Jan 13 at 17:50










  • $begingroup$
    You are right, thanks! :)
    $endgroup$
    – FTAC
    Jan 13 at 20:27










  • $begingroup$
    This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
    $endgroup$
    – Did
    Jan 13 at 20:33












  • 3




    $begingroup$
    Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
    $endgroup$
    – Did
    Jan 13 at 17:34







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
    $endgroup$
    – StubbornAtom
    Jan 13 at 17:50










  • $begingroup$
    You are right, thanks! :)
    $endgroup$
    – FTAC
    Jan 13 at 20:27










  • $begingroup$
    This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
    $endgroup$
    – Did
    Jan 13 at 20:33







3




3




$begingroup$
Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 17:34





$begingroup$
Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 17:34





1




1




$begingroup$
Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
$endgroup$
– StubbornAtom
Jan 13 at 17:50




$begingroup$
Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
$endgroup$
– StubbornAtom
Jan 13 at 17:50












$begingroup$
You are right, thanks! :)
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27




$begingroup$
You are right, thanks! :)
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27












$begingroup$
This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 20:33




$begingroup$
This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 20:33










3 Answers
3






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oldest

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4












$begingroup$

You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.



As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.






share|cite|improve this answer









$endgroup$








  • 1




    $begingroup$
    You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:30






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:31







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Nice question whatsoever (+1)
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:32






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Thanks! You too ......
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:33







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 21:04


















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$begingroup$

The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.



In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.



The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.






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  • $begingroup$
    Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
    $endgroup$
    – FTAC
    Jan 13 at 20:27







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
    $endgroup$
    – jmerry
    Jan 13 at 20:37


















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Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
beginaligned
Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
&= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
&= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
&= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
&= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
endaligned

One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).






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    3 Answers
    3






    active

    oldest

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    3 Answers
    3






    active

    oldest

    votes









    active

    oldest

    votes






    active

    oldest

    votes









    4












    $begingroup$

    You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.



    As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.






    share|cite|improve this answer









    $endgroup$








    • 1




      $begingroup$
      You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:30






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:31







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Nice question whatsoever (+1)
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:32






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Thanks! You too ......
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:33







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 21:04















    4












    $begingroup$

    You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.



    As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.






    share|cite|improve this answer









    $endgroup$








    • 1




      $begingroup$
      You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:30






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:31







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Nice question whatsoever (+1)
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:32






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Thanks! You too ......
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:33







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 21:04













    4












    4








    4





    $begingroup$

    You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.



    As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.






    share|cite|improve this answer









    $endgroup$



    You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.



    As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.







    share|cite|improve this answer












    share|cite|improve this answer



    share|cite|improve this answer










    answered Jan 13 at 17:55









    Mostafa AyazMostafa Ayaz

    15.3k3939




    15.3k3939







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:30






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:31







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Nice question whatsoever (+1)
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:32






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Thanks! You too ......
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:33







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 21:04












    • 1




      $begingroup$
      You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:30






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:31







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Nice question whatsoever (+1)
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:32






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Thanks! You too ......
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 20:33







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
      $endgroup$
      – Mostafa Ayaz
      Jan 13 at 21:04







    1




    1




    $begingroup$
    You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:30




    $begingroup$
    You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:30




    1




    1




    $begingroup$
    Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:31





    $begingroup$
    Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:31





    1




    1




    $begingroup$
    Nice question whatsoever (+1)
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:32




    $begingroup$
    Nice question whatsoever (+1)
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:32




    1




    1




    $begingroup$
    Thanks! You too ......
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:33





    $begingroup$
    Thanks! You too ......
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 20:33





    1




    1




    $begingroup$
    The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 21:04




    $begingroup$
    The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
    $endgroup$
    – Mostafa Ayaz
    Jan 13 at 21:04











    3












    $begingroup$

    The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.



    In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.



    The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.






    share|cite|improve this answer









    $endgroup$












    • $begingroup$
      Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
      $endgroup$
      – FTAC
      Jan 13 at 20:27







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
      $endgroup$
      – jmerry
      Jan 13 at 20:37















    3












    $begingroup$

    The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.



    In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.



    The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.






    share|cite|improve this answer









    $endgroup$












    • $begingroup$
      Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
      $endgroup$
      – FTAC
      Jan 13 at 20:27







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
      $endgroup$
      – jmerry
      Jan 13 at 20:37













    3












    3








    3





    $begingroup$

    The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.



    In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.



    The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.






    share|cite|improve this answer









    $endgroup$



    The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.



    In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.



    The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.







    share|cite|improve this answer












    share|cite|improve this answer



    share|cite|improve this answer










    answered Jan 13 at 17:27









    jmerryjmerry

    5,857718




    5,857718











    • $begingroup$
      Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
      $endgroup$
      – FTAC
      Jan 13 at 20:27







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
      $endgroup$
      – jmerry
      Jan 13 at 20:37
















    • $begingroup$
      Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
      $endgroup$
      – FTAC
      Jan 13 at 20:27







    • 1




      $begingroup$
      Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
      $endgroup$
      – jmerry
      Jan 13 at 20:37















    $begingroup$
    Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
    $endgroup$
    – FTAC
    Jan 13 at 20:27





    $begingroup$
    Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
    $endgroup$
    – FTAC
    Jan 13 at 20:27





    1




    1




    $begingroup$
    Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
    $endgroup$
    – jmerry
    Jan 13 at 20:37




    $begingroup$
    Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
    $endgroup$
    – jmerry
    Jan 13 at 20:37











    2












    $begingroup$

    Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
    beginaligned
    Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
    &= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
    &= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
    &= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
    &= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
    endaligned

    One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).






    share|cite|improve this answer











    $endgroup$

















      2












      $begingroup$

      Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
      beginaligned
      Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
      &= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
      &= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
      &= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
      &= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
      endaligned

      One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).






      share|cite|improve this answer











      $endgroup$















        2












        2








        2





        $begingroup$

        Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
        beginaligned
        Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
        &= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
        &= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
        &= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
        &= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
        endaligned

        One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).






        share|cite|improve this answer











        $endgroup$



        Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
        beginaligned
        Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
        &= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
        &= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
        &= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
        &= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
        endaligned

        One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).







        share|cite|improve this answer














        share|cite|improve this answer



        share|cite|improve this answer








        edited Jan 13 at 17:54

























        answered Jan 13 at 17:37









        Harry49Harry49

        6,17331132




        6,17331132



























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