Prove that the estimators are biased.

Clash Royale CLAN TAG#URR8PPP
$begingroup$
Given the following sentences:
Let $X_1,..., X_n$ be a random sample from a $Pois(mu)$ distribution. Consider the following estimator for $e^-mu=P(X_i=0)$: $T=e^-overlineX_n$.
The independent random variables $X_1;...;X_n$ have a geometric distribution with parameter $p$. Look at the following estimator for $p$: $S=frac1overlineX_n$.
Prove that the estimators are biased.
In my opinion both estimators are unbiased:
$E[T]=e^E[overlineX_n]=e^-mu$ that is unbiased for the parameter $e^-mu$.
$E[S]=frac1E[overlineX_n]=frac11/p=p$ that is unbiased for the parameter $p$.
Why I'm wrong in both cases? Where are my mistakes? Thanks.
statistics
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Given the following sentences:
Let $X_1,..., X_n$ be a random sample from a $Pois(mu)$ distribution. Consider the following estimator for $e^-mu=P(X_i=0)$: $T=e^-overlineX_n$.
The independent random variables $X_1;...;X_n$ have a geometric distribution with parameter $p$. Look at the following estimator for $p$: $S=frac1overlineX_n$.
Prove that the estimators are biased.
In my opinion both estimators are unbiased:
$E[T]=e^E[overlineX_n]=e^-mu$ that is unbiased for the parameter $e^-mu$.
$E[S]=frac1E[overlineX_n]=frac11/p=p$ that is unbiased for the parameter $p$.
Why I'm wrong in both cases? Where are my mistakes? Thanks.
statistics
$endgroup$
3
$begingroup$
Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 17:34
1
$begingroup$
Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
$endgroup$
– StubbornAtom
Jan 13 at 17:50
$begingroup$
You are right, thanks! :)
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
$begingroup$
This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 20:33
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Given the following sentences:
Let $X_1,..., X_n$ be a random sample from a $Pois(mu)$ distribution. Consider the following estimator for $e^-mu=P(X_i=0)$: $T=e^-overlineX_n$.
The independent random variables $X_1;...;X_n$ have a geometric distribution with parameter $p$. Look at the following estimator for $p$: $S=frac1overlineX_n$.
Prove that the estimators are biased.
In my opinion both estimators are unbiased:
$E[T]=e^E[overlineX_n]=e^-mu$ that is unbiased for the parameter $e^-mu$.
$E[S]=frac1E[overlineX_n]=frac11/p=p$ that is unbiased for the parameter $p$.
Why I'm wrong in both cases? Where are my mistakes? Thanks.
statistics
$endgroup$
Given the following sentences:
Let $X_1,..., X_n$ be a random sample from a $Pois(mu)$ distribution. Consider the following estimator for $e^-mu=P(X_i=0)$: $T=e^-overlineX_n$.
The independent random variables $X_1;...;X_n$ have a geometric distribution with parameter $p$. Look at the following estimator for $p$: $S=frac1overlineX_n$.
Prove that the estimators are biased.
In my opinion both estimators are unbiased:
$E[T]=e^E[overlineX_n]=e^-mu$ that is unbiased for the parameter $e^-mu$.
$E[S]=frac1E[overlineX_n]=frac11/p=p$ that is unbiased for the parameter $p$.
Why I'm wrong in both cases? Where are my mistakes? Thanks.
statistics
statistics
edited Jan 13 at 20:30
FTAC
asked Jan 13 at 17:01
FTACFTAC
2719
2719
3
$begingroup$
Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 17:34
1
$begingroup$
Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
$endgroup$
– StubbornAtom
Jan 13 at 17:50
$begingroup$
You are right, thanks! :)
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
$begingroup$
This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 20:33
add a comment |
3
$begingroup$
Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 17:34
1
$begingroup$
Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
$endgroup$
– StubbornAtom
Jan 13 at 17:50
$begingroup$
You are right, thanks! :)
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
$begingroup$
This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 20:33
3
3
$begingroup$
Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 17:34
$begingroup$
Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 17:34
1
1
$begingroup$
Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
$endgroup$
– StubbornAtom
Jan 13 at 17:50
$begingroup$
Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
$endgroup$
– StubbornAtom
Jan 13 at 17:50
$begingroup$
You are right, thanks! :)
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
$begingroup$
You are right, thanks! :)
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
$begingroup$
This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 20:33
$begingroup$
This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 20:33
add a comment |
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.
As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:30
1
$begingroup$
Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:31
1
$begingroup$
Nice question whatsoever (+1)
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:32
1
$begingroup$
Thanks! You too ......
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:33
1
$begingroup$
The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 21:04
|
show 5 more comments
$begingroup$
The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.
In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.
The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
1
$begingroup$
Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
$endgroup$
– jmerry
Jan 13 at 20:37
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
beginaligned
Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
&= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
&= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
&= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
&= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
endaligned
One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).
$endgroup$
add a comment |
Your Answer
StackExchange.ifUsing("editor", function ()
return StackExchange.using("mathjaxEditing", function ()
StackExchange.MarkdownEditor.creationCallbacks.add(function (editor, postfix)
StackExchange.mathjaxEditing.prepareWmdForMathJax(editor, postfix, [["$", "$"], ["\\(","\\)"]]);
);
);
, "mathjax-editing");
StackExchange.ready(function()
var channelOptions =
tags: "".split(" "),
id: "69"
;
initTagRenderer("".split(" "), "".split(" "), channelOptions);
StackExchange.using("externalEditor", function()
// Have to fire editor after snippets, if snippets enabled
if (StackExchange.settings.snippets.snippetsEnabled)
StackExchange.using("snippets", function()
createEditor();
);
else
createEditor();
);
function createEditor()
StackExchange.prepareEditor(
heartbeatType: 'answer',
autoActivateHeartbeat: false,
convertImagesToLinks: true,
noModals: true,
showLowRepImageUploadWarning: true,
reputationToPostImages: 10,
bindNavPrevention: true,
postfix: "",
imageUploader:
brandingHtml: "Powered by u003ca class="icon-imgur-white" href="https://imgur.com/"u003eu003c/au003e",
contentPolicyHtml: "User contributions licensed under u003ca href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/"u003ecc by-sa 3.0 with attribution requiredu003c/au003e u003ca href="https://stackoverflow.com/legal/content-policy"u003e(content policy)u003c/au003e",
allowUrls: true
,
noCode: true, onDemand: true,
discardSelector: ".discard-answer"
,immediatelyShowMarkdownHelp:true
);
);
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
StackExchange.ready(
function ()
StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fmath.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f3072241%2fprove-that-the-estimators-are-biased%23new-answer', 'question_page');
);
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.
As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:30
1
$begingroup$
Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:31
1
$begingroup$
Nice question whatsoever (+1)
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:32
1
$begingroup$
Thanks! You too ......
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:33
1
$begingroup$
The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 21:04
|
show 5 more comments
$begingroup$
You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.
As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:30
1
$begingroup$
Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:31
1
$begingroup$
Nice question whatsoever (+1)
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:32
1
$begingroup$
Thanks! You too ......
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:33
1
$begingroup$
The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 21:04
|
show 5 more comments
$begingroup$
You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.
As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.
$endgroup$
You can't write$$Elefte^overlineX_nright=e^EoverlineX_n$$but we have $$Elefte^overlineX_nright=Elefte^X_1over ne^X_2over ncdots e^X_nover nright\=left(Elefte^X_1over nrightright)^n\=(exp(mu(e^1over n-1)))^n\=expBig(mu n(sqrt[n]e-1)Big)$$according to Poisson distribution which is biased.
As with the first one, we can argue similarly for the second one as following$$ES=Eleftnover X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over X_1+cdots + X_nright\=nEleft1over Yright$$where $Y$ has negative binomial distribution with parameters $p $ and $n$. Further calculations are nasty in this case but you can refer to Geometric distribution section Parameter estimation.
answered Jan 13 at 17:55
Mostafa AyazMostafa Ayaz
15.3k3939
15.3k3939
1
$begingroup$
You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:30
1
$begingroup$
Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:31
1
$begingroup$
Nice question whatsoever (+1)
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:32
1
$begingroup$
Thanks! You too ......
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:33
1
$begingroup$
The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 21:04
|
show 5 more comments
1
$begingroup$
You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:30
1
$begingroup$
Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:31
1
$begingroup$
Nice question whatsoever (+1)
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:32
1
$begingroup$
Thanks! You too ......
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:33
1
$begingroup$
The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 21:04
1
1
$begingroup$
You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:30
$begingroup$
You're welcome. Sorrily. I can't read what you've written but if I get you correctly, this is equivalent to say $$Eleft1over Yright=1over EY$$or in integral form $$int 1over yf(y)dy=1over int yf(y)dy$$which doesn't hold generally. You can also refer to Cauchy Schwartz inequality for the cases it holds
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:30
1
1
$begingroup$
Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:31
$begingroup$
Another way of saying that is $$int 1over yf(y)dyint yf(y)dy= 1$$
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:31
1
1
$begingroup$
Nice question whatsoever (+1)
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:32
$begingroup$
Nice question whatsoever (+1)
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:32
1
1
$begingroup$
Thanks! You too ......
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:33
$begingroup$
Thanks! You too ......
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 20:33
1
1
$begingroup$
The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 21:04
$begingroup$
The answer is negative also to the same reason of $ES$. The only thing we can say in the most general case is that $$ET=Ee^-X_1over nEe^-X_2over ncdots Ee^-X_nover n$$because of the independence between $X_i$s and hence $S_iover n$s .Then after, we need math to continue.
$endgroup$
– Mostafa Ayaz
Jan 13 at 21:04
|
show 5 more comments
$begingroup$
The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.
In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.
The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
1
$begingroup$
Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
$endgroup$
– jmerry
Jan 13 at 20:37
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.
In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.
The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
1
$begingroup$
Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
$endgroup$
– jmerry
Jan 13 at 20:37
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.
In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.
The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.
$endgroup$
The problem is that the exponential and the reciprocal aren't linear. You can't get an unbiased estimator for the standard deviation by taking the square root of an unbiased estimator for the variance, and we have the same problem here.
In order to see these examples more clearly, consider one-element samples. In the Poisson example, we get a probability of $e^-mu$ of sample value $0$ and estimate $1$, a probability of $mu e^-mu$ of sample value $1$ and estimate $e$, a probability of $fracmu^22e^mu$ of sample value $2$ and estimate $e^2$, and so on. Add them up, and the expected value of what we get is a value of the moment-generating function $sum_n=0^infty fracmu^n e^nn!e^-mu = e^mu(e-1)$. That's not the mean we wanted, and there's no simple way to correct it.
The second example, on the geometric distribution, has similar issues. The probability of getting $n$ is $(1-p)cdot p^n$, so our one-element estimate returns $frac1n$ with that probability. Sum that, and we get $-(1-p)ln(1-p)$. That's definitely not what we want - it goes to zero as $pto 1^-$.
answered Jan 13 at 17:27
jmerryjmerry
5,857718
5,857718
$begingroup$
Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
1
$begingroup$
Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
$endgroup$
– jmerry
Jan 13 at 20:37
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
1
$begingroup$
Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
$endgroup$
– jmerry
Jan 13 at 20:37
$begingroup$
Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
$begingroup$
Thanks for the answer, what about for the second example $T=frac#i:X_i=1n$. Where $#A$ stands for the number of elements in $A$, why is unbiased, is not $E[S]=frac1E[X_n]=frac11/p=p$?
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
1
1
$begingroup$
Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
$endgroup$
– jmerry
Jan 13 at 20:37
$begingroup$
Comments to previous answers are not a good place to ask new questions. Asking about a new estimator not even hinted at in your original question - that doesn't belong here.
$endgroup$
– jmerry
Jan 13 at 20:37
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
beginaligned
Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
&= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
&= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
&= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
&= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
endaligned
One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
beginaligned
Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
&= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
&= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
&= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
&= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
endaligned
One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
beginaligned
Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
&= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
&= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
&= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
&= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
endaligned
One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).
$endgroup$
Here $n < +infty$. We compute $Bbb E (exp(bar X_n))$ where $bar X_n$ is the mean of a i.i.d. sample $(X_1,dots,X_n)$ with distribution $textPoisson(mu)$:
beginaligned
Bbb E (exp(bar X_n)) &= Bbb E left(prod_i=1^n exp fracX_inright) \
&= prod_i=1^n Bbb E left( exp fracX_inright) \
&= Bbb E left( exp fracX_1nright)^n \
&= left(e^-musum_k=0^infty frac(e^1/n mu)^kk! right)^n \
&= expleft(n (e^1/n-1)muright) & neq exp (mu)
endaligned
One can note that the bias vanishes as $nto +infty$. For the second example, one can prove that the estimator is biased by using Jensen's inequality (see this post).
edited Jan 13 at 17:54
answered Jan 13 at 17:37
Harry49Harry49
6,17331132
6,17331132
add a comment |
add a comment |
Thanks for contributing an answer to Mathematics Stack Exchange!
- Please be sure to answer the question. Provide details and share your research!
But avoid …
- Asking for help, clarification, or responding to other answers.
- Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience.
Use MathJax to format equations. MathJax reference.
To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers.
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
StackExchange.ready(
function ()
StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fmath.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f3072241%2fprove-that-the-estimators-are-biased%23new-answer', 'question_page');
);
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
3
$begingroup$
Sorry but if you think that $T=e^bar X$ implies $E(T)=e^E(bar X)$ and that $S=frac1bar X$ implies $E(S)=frac1E(bar X)$, then you have some serious revising to do... FYI, if $Z>0$ almost surely then $Eleft(frac1Zright)=frac1E(Z)$ never happens, except if $Z$ is constant.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 17:34
1
$begingroup$
Mistake is concluding $E(g(X))=g(E(X))$ for arbitrary function $g$. You might want to take a look at Jensen's inequality.
$endgroup$
– StubbornAtom
Jan 13 at 17:50
$begingroup$
You are right, thanks! :)
$endgroup$
– FTAC
Jan 13 at 20:27
$begingroup$
This is odd, it seems the accepted answer is addressing none of your two questions. Please explain.
$endgroup$
– Did
Jan 13 at 20:33